Will more than one member of United States congress die in 2023? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2024

Will more than one member of United States congress die in 2023?

50%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If they are elected at any point in the 30 days prior to death, or the day that they die, they will count towards the 2 required for a YES resolution

House & Senate

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bought Ṁ70 of NO

Looking at deaths back to 2006 (when average congress age reached levels similar to today) we had 28 deaths in the past 17 years. Modelling deaths as a Poisson distribution with a mean of 28/17, there is only a 49% chance of more than one death in a year. Plus we are 3% into 2023 already and no deaths, so the odds should be even lower.

Congress deaths: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Congress_members_who_died_in_office_(2000%E2%80%93)

Congress age over time: https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/118th-congress-age-third-oldest-1789-rcna64117

is predicting YES at 58%

@StanPinsent Congress continued getting older after 2006: https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-oldest-history-gerontocracy-lawmakers-2022-9

"old fraction" is probably a better predictor of deaths than average age.

Related, 1 death market

bought Ṁ20 NO from 52% to 50%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 50% to 52%

bought Ṁ20 NO from 53% to 50%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 55% to 53%

filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 YES at 55% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ100 YES at 54% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ30 NO from 58% to 53%

bought Ṁ100 NO at 58%

bought Ṁ50 NO at 58%

bought Ṁ70 NO at 58%

bought Ṁ20 NO at 58%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 60% to 58%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ18/Ṁ19 NO at 60% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 NO at 64% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ65 YES from 58% to 66%

filled limit order Ṁ201/Ṁ1,000 YES at 58% (cancelled)

sold Ṁ64 YES from 61% to 58%

sold Ṁ10 YES from 63% to 61%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 61% to 63%

filled limit order Ṁ174/Ṁ174 YES at 58%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 64% to 61%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ100 NO at 64% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ40 YES from 57% to 65%

filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ1,000 YES at 57% (cancelled)

filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 55% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ68/Ṁ100 NO at 54% (cancelled)

filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 55%

filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ200 YES at 50%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 54% to 49%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 60% to 54%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 54% to 60%

bought Ṁ45 YES from 50% to 54%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 50%

bought Ṁ5 YES from 46% to 50%

bought Ṁ5 NO from 50% to 46%

created limit order for Ṁ60 YES at 40%

created limit order for Ṁ70 YES at 30%

created limit order for Ṁ80 YES at 20%

created limit order for Ṁ30 YES at 30% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ40 YES at 40% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ80 NO at 80%

created limit order for Ṁ70 NO at 70% (cancelled)

filled limit order Ṁ0/Ṁ60 NO at 60% (cancelled)

filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 NO at 50%