Gen avatar
Genzy
closes Jan 1, 2024
Will more than one member of United States congress die in 2023?
50%
chance

If they are elected at any point in the 30 days prior to death, or the day that they die, they will count towards the 2 required for a YES resolution

House & Senate

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StanPinsent avatar
Stan Pinsent
bought Ṁ70 of NO

Looking at deaths back to 2006 (when average congress age reached levels similar to today) we had 28 deaths in the past 17 years. Modelling deaths as a Poisson distribution with a mean of 28/17, there is only a 49% chance of more than one death in a year. Plus we are 3% into 2023 already and no deaths, so the odds should be even lower.

Congress deaths: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Congress_members_who_died_in_office_(2000%E2%80%93)

Congress age over time: https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/118th-congress-age-third-oldest-1789-rcna64117

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray
is predicting YES at 58%

@StanPinsent Congress continued getting older after 2006: https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-oldest-history-gerontocracy-lawmakers-2022-9

"old fraction" is probably a better predictor of deaths than average age.

Gen avatar

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