N/Aing an answer from (Game Awards 2023: LIVE Fun Prop Bets!) in a roundabout way - Read comments
Mini
4
แน€5.2k
resolved Dec 8
Resolved
YES

Get แน€1,000 play money

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€3,996
2แน€951
3แน€3
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predicted NO

Just waiting for positions tab to update so I can verify a resolution will have the desired effect.

A note for whoever reads this in the future, this market was designed to undo an unclear resolution on this market: Game Awards 2023: LIVE Fun Prop Bets! [free response]

it was arguable how it should have been resolved, Panfilo said he would N/A or 50/50 and let a mod decide. Joshua went to unresolve and N/A it but couldn't - we can't unresolve those markets.

This market exists to functionally unresolve this for the two biggest losers and the biggest profiteer. It seemed quicker & easier than database surgery by one of the devs.

All above board!

@Marnix put a limit order at 9% for M86-YES, I sent you a M100 loan so you can do it

@Kraalnaxx put a limit order at 10% for M440-YES

@Gen then @Panfilo can fill the orders and I'll resolve it YES, to undo the resolution from the other market

@Gen Since this is unranked will it not fix the league stuff?

@Panfilo I will rank it after, and put explanation and update title etc. so people can track the decision

@Gen done!

predicted NO

@Marnix ok just waiting on @Kraalnaxx. I don't have contact for them outside of Manifold so we will play the waiting game ๐Ÿ‘

predicted NO

@Marnix actually I miscalculated slightly bc that gives you the mana back but not all as profit, add another M10 at 9% lol.

thought I was clever making it exact but I did it wrong so this will do

@Gen My order's in.

@Gen How do I precisely fill the orders?

predicted NO

@Panfilo I botched this a bit, Kraal needs to add a little more so his totals M440 and then you can fill them. I'll tell you exactly how much NO to buy in a minute if that helps

@Gen Sure, I can also calculate it myself if there's some obvious system. @Kraalnaxx

predicted NO

@Gen Sec I'm having @Joshua double check bc I am losing my mind

predicted NO

@Gen

M440 @ 10% should mean 4,400 shares and M440 input (M3960 profit?) so that's still a bit off, I should just open excel and work this out properly

predicted NO

@Gen ok that took 5 seconds I should have done it initially,

M444 @ 10% for 4,440 position / 3996 profit

M95 @ 9% for 1,055 position / 960 profit

(he has M96 @ 9% but you don't have to fill the last mana)

This seems correct to me

@Gen I bought the Nos.

@Panfilo I should have a position in this market now, shouldn't I? It still says I've got no position

predicted NO

@Marnix Yeah it's not updating for anyone, Genzy and I are complaining on Discord, dunno what the issue is. Maybe something with private markets?

@Panfilo I sold my position and now it shows no positions, but before I could see mine ๐Ÿ˜†

@Panfilo bros I am baffled, I'm gonna resolve this and see how it goes ๐Ÿ’€

@Gen ok well I was a bit off on the calculations but close enough? @Marnix you can keep the M100 "loan" as long as you like. I will come debt collect when I'm bankrupt though so keep it on your books

predicted NO

@Gen If I lose my league by 100 mana I will harpoon you all

@Panfilo Oh I didn't realise it put you out an extra m100, this is why I wanted to check positions tab - you could have eaten the excess liquidity from 56-100% to make it up and get everyone even..

I will send you the balance but your profits are gonezo

predicted NO

@Gen I don't know how any of this works. It's not showing as much lost profit as I thought it would either? My league has what I expected here:

But my standing only fell by half that amount. As long as it's just my ignorance and not a bug, I'm good.

predicted NO

@Panfilo Okay, it counted the other half now. Weird! Time for bed.

@Panfilo This resolution and fix should have you positive overall.

Panfi was +5,094 and got +4,956 here so is now total +138

Kraal was -4000 and got +3996 so is now total -4

Marni was -955 and got +951 so is now total -4

I also sent +250 to panfi and +100 to marni amongst the chaos. I thought you were down M100 from your comment, but you should be up ๐Ÿ‘