Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if Moonshot AI officially releases or makes publicly available the "Kimi K4" large language model (or any model explicitly designated under the "Kimi K4" naming convention, such as Kimi K4 Max, Kimi K4 Swarm, or Kimi K4 Base) on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
To qualify for a YES resolution, the model must be made available through at least one of the following:
Released open-weights to the public (e.g., via Hugging Face or the Moonshot AI GitHub)
Integrated as an active model variant in the Kimi chat interface/app (kimi.com)
Made accessible to developers via the official Kimi API platform
The primary source of truth will be announcements published on the official [Moonshot AI Website](https://www.moonshot.cn or https://www.kimi.com) or their verified official social/developer channels. Minor version updates (e.g., Kimi K3.5) will not trigger a YES resolution unless explicitly branded as part of the Kimi K4 family.
Background
Moonshot AI is a prominent Beijing-based artificial intelligence startup. Following the launch of the open-weights Kimi K2 in July 2025, Moonshot AI released its flagship successor, Kimi K3, on July 16, 2026. Kimi K3 features approximately 2.8 trillion parameters, a 1-million-token context window, and native visual and agentic capabilities. This market tracks whether the rapid pace of development in the Chinese AI ecosystem will lead Moonshot AI to deploy its next-generation architecture, Kimi K4, before the end of 2026.
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1,000