Resolution criteria

‼️This market resolves YES if the United States deploys ground troops to Iran. Trump has stated that military intervention "doesn't mean boots on the ground," suggesting that airstrikes, cyber operations, or other non-ground-based military actions would not satisfy the resolution criteria. The market resolves NO if no U.S. ground troops are deployed to Iran by December 31, 2026‼️.

Background

Nationwide protests began on December 28, 2025, when merchants at Tehran's Grand Bazaar closed their shops over the Iranian rial's plummeting value, and demonstrations quickly spread nationwide with grievances evolving from economic concerns to broader opposition against Iran's clerical establishment. Violence in the country has led to dozens of deaths and arrests. President Trump is seriously considering military action as he considers following through on his recent threats to strike the Iranian regime should it use lethal force against civilians. The U.S. President was not expected to send American forces into the country and there has been no major movement of U.S. military assets.

Considerations

Administration officials have expressed concerns that military strikes could have the unintended effect of rallying the Iranian people to support the government, or lead Iran to retaliate with military force of its own. Iranian Parliament speaker warned that Israel and "all American military centers, bases and ships in the region will be our legitimate targets" if the U.S. attacks Iran.