Got pretty close!

12pm = noon?

@ChristopherRandles Yes, ~1 hour from now

@GarrettGarzonie Why not resolve at EOD instead of noon?

@WilliamGunn I hadn't really thought about it. What would be the benefit of waiting?

@GarrettGarzonie It would bring the resolution criteria more in line with the question. It's still a day before until midnight.

@WilliamGunn Oh I think when I made the market my reasoning was that results start coming out on the evening of the 5th and I was interested in a full day before that, probably should have made the market resolve at noon though

@GarrettGarzonie A little late to ask, but how are you planning to resolve this if Harris's final chance of winning is 45.0%?

@HenryRodgers Inclusive, surely?

@HenryRodgers I’ll resolve YES in that case

Curious what people think at more loose odds:

I do not believe the election will be that tight the day before the election. It will be 25-40% for either candidate

@PlainBG https://manifold.markets/ChinmayTheMathGuy/largest-gap-between-trumpharris-in then my market should be we

ll over 20%

Largest gap between Trump/Harris in betting odds

22% chance. Per electionbettingodds.com what is the maximum (absolute) difference between Trump and Harris from now (August 22nd) to November 4th 11:59 PM ET? [image]Resolves to nearest % (PROB)

similar market based on same source:

Will it resovle YES if Harris is between 45 and 55 any day before the election («one day»), or YES if Harris is between 45 and 55 the day before the election («one day before»)?

It will resolve yes if she is in the range at 12:00pm EST 11/4/24. EBO updates every minute so this should be unambiguous

At the rate Trump is putting his foot in his mouth, it will probably be higher.