
As clarification, I am using my current net worth as of creating this question (Ṁ1,118) as the baseline. Doubling my net worth would be Ṁ2236 (now Ṁ2990, see update) or higher. If there is any point between the creation of this question and Feb 1st that my net worth reaches or exceeds that value, this question will resolve as YES. Otherwise, this question will resolve as NO on Feb 1st, EST.
P.S. I may miss a point. If you find it, please @ me and I will resolve when I can.
Also: I will, ofc, not be able to resolve at exactly 12:00 AM Feb 1st, but if my net worth reaches that point only after Feb 1st I will still resolve as NO.
To avoid conflict of interest, I will not bet on this market.
Update 2024-13-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Mana earned through any active means (i.e. I have to actively do something in order to earn that mana, such as make, share, or trade in a market) will count towards net worth
Purchased Mana will not count towards net worth
Update 2024-16-12 (PST) The target net worth has been adjusted to Ṁ2990 (original Ṁ2236 + Ṁ754) to account for received payments, as while received payments should not progress me towards the net worth goal, I am still allowed to use it to make profit (or loss). Instead of subtracting 754 from all values on my net worth graph (which would be a pain for all of us), I'll just raise the bar.
Update 1/7/2025: This specifically applies to Pity Payments, such as the Ṁ754 payment that elicited the previous update. If, say, someone offered Ṁ200 to prove a statement in a comment section, and I recieved that award, then that Ṁ200 will indeed count towards the net worth goal as I earned that payment through active means (proving the statement). Another way to think about why I will include certain payments is that it effectively becomes a Bounty question, and the payment becomes the Bounty.
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ69 | |
2 | Ṁ62 | |
3 | Ṁ53 | |
4 | Ṁ46 | |
5 | Ṁ29 |
@traders I probably should have thought of this before i made my weekly subsidized market, so I'll do this next week, but:
I will be doing another one of these questions with the same rules. The time period may be different, but the idea will be the same.
Tune in for next week if you're interested!
@Gameknight Still not sure if it's more likely than not, another 1,200 mana in a month is quite a lot, but it's definitely looking better than a few days ago.
@SisyphosDale I'm honestly doubtful that I will be able to find such easy earnings frequently enough, but hey, a chance is a chance and I'll be d*mned if I don't take it
@Gameknight Maybe you should stick to easier trades for now (e.g. sports, death markets, events that already happened)
@bagelfan I don't watch sports, I don't know what death markets are, and events that already happened result in 99% yes/no markets that I literally am not allowed to bet on anymore lol
@Gameknight Death markets: markets about the survival of a particular person (easy to calculate the probability with survival rates like from https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html). If the event already happened but you are quick enough you can sneak your bets in
@Gameknight You might want to stay away from self-resolving markets, not counting them you are up by a little bit.
Also, do payments from other users count?

@bagelfan I'd like to say yes just because it would be more of a pain to count that, but for the sake of fairness, let's say no, payments from other users do not count (because it is not net worth earned by me doing something). I'll just subtract 754 from datapoints.