Mystery Markets will be judged on an objective, random criteria (e.g. a random number generator, the color of the 5th car I see after posting this, multiple stacked RNG generators, how many traders/comments a market gets, etc.). Each Mystery Market lasts for a week, and extra hints (decided on before each Mystery Market is opened) are released periodically (once a day, once every two days, etc. Depends on the market). Each Mystery Market will have different hints and resolution criteria. The final resolution criteria and result will be revealed at the end of the market. Hints will give you more information to place bets with, but will not necessarily reveal the criteria or exact probability by the end of the market. Please leave a comment if you have questions or see ambiguity in any hints. I will do my best to clear up any confusion.

For this market:

Hint #1: The resolution depends on 12 other markets.

Hint #2: Specifically which 12 other markets this resolution depends on changes over time.

Hint #3: The resolution involves adding trader counts.

Hint #4: The resolution involves checking if a final value is greater or less than 100.

Hint #5: The resolution involves dividing a value by a prime number.

Hint #6: The prime number is very likely to be less than 10.
Hint #7: If I were to resolve now (2/24/2025 12:41 PM UTC), I would resolve YES (the final value was 1317).
Hint #8: If I were to resolve now (2/25/2025 1:07 AM UTC), I would resolve YES (the final value was 2407).

• Update 2025-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator

  • Market Selection: The trader counts will be taken from the first 12 markets that appear when filtering for only “best”.

  • Division Factor: The sum of these trader counts will be divided by its smallest prime factor (note that this factor can be the sum itself if it is prime).

  • Outcome Criteria: If the final result is greater than 100, the market resolves YES; if it is less than or equal to 100, the market resolves NO.