Mystery Markets will be judged on an objective, random criteria (e.g. a random number generator, the color of the 5th car I see after posting this, multiple stacked RNG generators, how many traders/comments a market gets, etc.). Each Mystery Market lasts for a week, and extra hints (decided on before each Mystery Market is opened) are released periodically (once a day, once every two days, etc. Depends on the market). Each Mystery Market will have different hints and resolution criteria. The final resolution criteria and result will be revealed at the end of the market. Hints will give you more information to place bets with, but will not necessarily reveal the criteria or exact probability by the end of the market. Please leave a comment if you have questions or see ambiguity in any hints. I will do my best to clear up any confusion.
For this market:
Hint #1: P(NO) <= P(YES)
Hint #2: P(P(YES) == 50%) > 50%
Clarification hint (Originally meant to be Hint #4, but since hint #2 was confusing, I'll just give it to you): The resolution will depend on the results of one randomly generated value from 1-10 and another randomly generated value between 1-100. The results of the first RNG between 1-10 will determine the YES/NO resolution brackets for the second RNG between 1-100. Hint #2 is saying that the result of the first RNG is more likely to result in 50/50 brackets, rather than, say, 25/75 brackets.
Let me give an example resolution criteria that would satisfy Hint #1, Hint #2, and the Clarification Hint:
If the first RNG between 1-10 is 6 or less, then if the second RNG is between 51-100 (inclusive), then the question resolves YES. If the first RNG is 7 or more, then if the second RNG is between 10-100 (inclusive), then the question resolves YES. Thus, the likelihood that P(YES) becomes 50% after the first RNG is greater than 50%.
In other words, the P(YES) of hint #1 and #2 refers to the P(YES) for the second RNG, if that makes sense. If the first RNG is within a bracket, P(YES) becomes 50%. If the first RNG is not within that bracket, P(YES) becomes some value greater than 50%.
Hint #3: For the second RNG, if P(YES) > 50%, then P(YES) > 75% (i.e. if the result of the first RNG decides that the chance that the second RNG will result in a YES resolution is higher than 50%, then the likelihood that the second RNG will result in a YES resolution is higher than 75%.)
Hint #4 (final hint): The result of the first RNG decided that P(YES) > 50% for the second RNG.
Update 2025-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator:
P(YES) Scope: The probability mentioned in Hint #2 applies exclusively to the second RNG (the one selecting the final YES/NO outcome), not to the overall market resolution.
Resolution Mechanics Reminder: The first RNG (1-10) determines the YES/NO bracket for the second RNG (1-100), which ultimately decides the market outcome.
Key Detail: This clarification ensures that when you see P(YES) values in the hints, they refer solely to the outcome of the second RNG.
Update 2025-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification of Resolution Criteria:
Two RNG Process: The market outcome is determined by two random number generators. The first RNG (1-10) sets the bracket for the second RNG (1-100).
Bracket Effect: The outcome of the first RNG influences the probability (P(YES)) in the second RNG, which is the only stage where P(YES) is defined.
Example Calculation: Using the example from the clarification hint:
In 4/10 cases, the second RNG yields YES 91% of the time.
In 6/10 cases, the second RNG yields YES 50% of the time.
Overall, this gives a final computed probability of YES: (4/10 * 91/100) + (6/10 * 50/100) = 66.4%.
Important Note: The P(YES) mentioned in earlier hints refers only to the outcome of the second RNG, and this calculation demonstrates how the two RNG results combine to form the overall market probability.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ4,557 | |
| 2 | Ṁ152 | |
| 3 | Ṁ80 | |
| 4 | Ṁ77 | |
| 5 | Ṁ74 |
@traders Clarification added for the second hint. As @DavidOman has pointed out, it was a very confusing hint that didn't really make sense.
@Gameknight that doesn't make sense, you know what the probability is, so if it is exactly 50% the statement is technically correct but really wired? but if it isn't exactly 50% then the statement is false? Meaningless? Dishonest? Really weird? I'm not sure
@DavidOman Clarification hint (Originally meant to be Hint #4, but since hint #2 was confusing, I'll just give it to you): The resolution will depend on the results of one randomly generated value from 1-10 and another randomly generated value between 1-100. The results of the first RNG between 1-10 will determine the YES/NO resolution brackets for the second RNG between 1-100. Hint #2 is saying that the result of the first RNG is more likely to result in 50/50 brackets, rather than, say, 25/75 brackets.
@DavidOman All hint #2 and the clarification hint tell us is that P(YES)>25%. Hint #1 told us that P(YES)>50%, so there is no new information here. With just this information, this is just a market with random resolution with greater than 50/50 odds of YES, although I do agree the convoluted and unknown criteria make this less clear.
@wolf "With just this information, this is just a market with random resolution with greater than 50/50 odds of YES"
Currently, yes. However, each one will give you a little more information that will help you make your decisions. A random 50/50 market would be boring, so I stacked RNGs to introduce more variability.
@Gameknight guys, it's a game, imo hint 2 was clear enough:
P yes probably exactly 50%
But hint 1 says otherwise
To which you could infer there was a combinated resolution criteria (which was anyway the hint 4)
Kinda spoiled it reading all the stuff as a clarification for point 2
Hints can be confusing, they are hints, the point of the game is you try to figure out what is what doesn't makes sense to you...
Great market btw :)
@Choms Hint #2 tells us not that P(YES) is "probably exactly 50%", but that it's between 25% and 75%. Hint #1 does not say otherwise, as it says P(YES) is >50%.
The fact that resolution is by binary function of other random variables doesn't mean much, as it could be the same probability with just one variadle and a predefined range.
"Hint #2 tells us not that P(YES) is "probably exactly 50%", but that it's between 25% and 75%. Hint #1 does not say otherwise, as it says P(YES) is >50%."
No, it definitely says that the P(YES) of the second RNG is likely to be 50%. Hint #1 just says that P(NO) will never be greater than P(YES). In other words, P(YES) is likely to be 50%, but can be greater, and never less, therefore it can't be 25%. Hope that clears it up for you a little.
"The fact that resolution is by binary function of other random variables doesn't mean much, as it could be the same probability with just one variadle and a predefined range."
Technically yes, but it's less fun that way. If I do it like this, I can drip-feed traders information and let them adjust to each new piece of information. That's what I was planning when I thought up of Mystery Markets: each new hint creates adjustment and volatility.
@Choms "Hints can be confusing, they are hints, the point of the game is you try to figure out what is what doesn't makes sense to you..."
Confusing hints are fine, to a point, but the hint wasn't just confusing - it didn't make sense at all. Many will interpret P(YES) as the P(YES) of the whole market because they don't know about the multiple RNGs - so Hint #2 was saying that the market's P(YES) can be 50%, but implies it can be another value? How does that make sense? It doesn't. Thus, the clarification was needed - the P(YES) refers only to the P(YES) of the second RNG.
@Gameknight If in more than half the first cases, half of the second are YES (and half NO), then more than 25% of total cases are YES (and also NO), so YES must be bound between 25% and 75% of total cases.
This might make more sense geometrically with the variables forming a plane. I'd encourage you to draw out all 1,000 ccases.
@Gameknight the second rng as you described it IS the p for the whole market... how does that doesn't makes sense?
I like oversimplifying to make it clearer:
Hint 1: market is "more likely" to be yes
Hint 2: however it is probably exactly as likely to either
Hint 3: ??? because I imply what you wrote is due to clarification on hint 2
Hint 4: this is because we are actually using a combination of rngs
I think it is a fine progression, what is confusing AF is this thread lol
If you can infer hint 4 by hints 1 & 2 you have an advantage which I think was the point of the market
@Choms It was confusing because the true P(YES) is a singular value calculated by a function of both RNGs. Using the example resolution criteria from the Clarification Hint, it would be 4/10 * 91/100 + 6/10 * 50/100 = 66.4%.
@Gameknight ok, so the conclusion is next time maybe use natural language instead xD because I'm not a mathematician so I just read it like it is
@traders Second hint is up! As you can probably guess now, this MM's period will be 2 days (i.e. there will be a new hint every two days).
Hello @traders ,
So Mystery Markets (MMs) are a new idea I had like yesterday, and I'm still figuring out what I want it to be. I'm going to try to keep MM rules as uniform across all MMs as possible, but this also means that I should be vague in some aspects and specific in others. This first week is a time for me to decide what MMs should be, what the rules should generally look like, and how I should tweak the initial description to better fit the ideal.
I've considered that meta-stuff like "how many comments/traders on this market/other markets" should also be included within MM resolution criteria possibilities. It's definitely objective, and mostly random. This does mean that I will have to come up with mostly non-probability related hints (as traders/comments are so random that mathematically calculating a probability is hard to do), but I find the idea interesting and thus will try to include such things in future MMs.
In the context of this MM, nothing should change for you all. The resolution criteria and result had been decided on the same day I made this market, which means that the inclusion of more types of resolution criteria changes nothing at all. I'm making this comment because I value transparency and I want to make sure any possible returning traders are aware of the change. (yes, this does mean that I might use such a criteria in the next market!)
TL;DR: For current traders, this mystery market will not change in the slightest. Future mystery markets may include a broader range of types of resolution criteria. Rules are subject to change at almost all times if the change will better reflect the spirit of the question and will not cause deleterious effects for traders.