Mystery Markets will be judged on an objective, random criteria (e.g. a random number generator, the color of the 5th car I see after posting this, multiple stacked RNG generators, how many traders/comments a market gets, etc.). Each Mystery Market lasts for a week, and extra hints (decided on before each Mystery Market is opened) are released periodically (once a day, once every two days, etc. Depends on the market). Each Mystery Market will have different hints and resolution criteria. The final resolution criteria and result will be revealed at the end of the market. Hints will give you more information to place bets with, but will not necessarily reveal the criteria or exact probability by the end of the market. Please leave a comment if you have questions or see ambiguity in any hints. I will do my best to clear up any confusion.

For this market:
Hint #1: P(NO) <= P(YES)

Hint #2: P(P(YES) == 50%) > 50%

Clarification hint (Originally meant to be Hint #4, but since hint #2 was confusing, I'll just give it to you): The resolution will depend on the results of one randomly generated value from 1-10 and another randomly generated value between 1-100. The results of the first RNG between 1-10 will determine the YES/NO resolution brackets for the second RNG between 1-100. Hint #2 is saying that the result of the first RNG is more likely to result in 50/50 brackets, rather than, say, 25/75 brackets.

Let me give an example resolution criteria that would satisfy Hint #1, Hint #2, and the Clarification Hint:
If the first RNG between 1-10 is 6 or less, then if the second RNG is between 51-100 (inclusive), then the question resolves YES. If the first RNG is 7 or more, then if the second RNG is between 10-100 (inclusive), then the question resolves YES. Thus, the likelihood that P(YES) becomes 50% after the first RNG is greater than 50%.

In other words, the P(YES) of hint #1 and #2 refers to the P(YES) for the second RNG, if that makes sense. If the first RNG is within a bracket, P(YES) becomes 50%. If the first RNG is not within that bracket, P(YES) becomes some value greater than 50%.

Hint #3: For the second RNG, if P(YES) > 50%, then P(YES) > 75% (i.e. if the result of the first RNG decides that the chance that the second RNG will result in a YES resolution is higher than 50%, then the likelihood that the second RNG will result in a YES resolution is higher than 75%.)

Hint #4 (final hint):  The result of the first RNG decided that P(YES) > 50% for the second RNG.

• Update 2025-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator:

  • P(YES) Scope: The probability mentioned in Hint #2 applies exclusively to the second RNG (the one selecting the final YES/NO outcome), not to the overall market resolution.

  • Resolution Mechanics Reminder: The first RNG (1-10) determines the YES/NO bracket for the second RNG (1-100), which ultimately decides the market outcome.

  • Key Detail: This clarification ensures that when you see P(YES) values in the hints, they refer solely to the outcome of the second RNG.

• Update 2025-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification of Resolution Criteria:

  • Two RNG Process: The market outcome is determined by two random number generators. The first RNG (1-10) sets the bracket for the second RNG (1-100).

  • Bracket Effect: The outcome of the first RNG influences the probability (P(YES)) in the second RNG, which is the only stage where P(YES) is defined.

  • Example Calculation: Using the example from the clarification hint:

  • In 4/10 cases, the second RNG yields YES 91% of the time.

  • In 6/10 cases, the second RNG yields YES 50% of the time.

  • Overall, this gives a final computed probability of YES: (4/10 * 91/100) + (6/10 * 50/100) = 66.4%.

  • Important Note: The P(YES) mentioned in earlier hints refers only to the outcome of the second RNG, and this calculation demonstrates how the two RNG results combine to form the overall market probability.