🏅 Top traders

is predicting YES at 53%

Resolution tweet: """Today's random numbers: 2999 3527 5666 0287 6695 6901 8013 4894 1431; today's random dice rolls: 6 6 5 4 5 2 6 3 6"""

When you think about it, every market with probability 50% is already a double or nothing market.

is predicting YES at 51%

@MichaelWheatley only if you assume that the market is perfectly efficient

How on earth does this market have 13 traders

bought Ṁ15 of NO

@IsaacKing Idfk

@IsaacKing what, you doesnt like pure gamble??

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@Gamble_market It's EV negative to bet away from 50%, so I'm just surprised that so many people are doing so.

bought Ṁ5 of YES

@IsaacKing Casinos in Las Vegas generates over 10 billion of revenue each year, so that's a bigger puzzle to solve

is predicting YES at 51%

@Gamble_market Yeah but I didn't think those people were on Manifold. :)

is predicting NO at 51%

@IsaacKing You might say that they’re……..ඞ

tob

bought Ṁ5 of NO

Please add some time zone info to the description ...

bought Ṁ4 of YES

@tob The Twitter account only tweets once a day, so time zone shouldn't matter.

snapBot

bought Ṁ15 YES from 51% to 53%

sold Ṁ3 NO at 51%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 51%

bought Ṁ25 NO at 51%

sold Ṁ48 YES at 51%

bought Ṁ54 NO at 51%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 51%

created limit order for Ṁ5 NO at 55%

Gigacasting

created limit order for Ṁ5 YES at 45%

arae

created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 50%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ150/Ṁ150 NO at 50%

arae

bought Ṁ50 NO from 53% to 51%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 51% to 53%

bought Ṁ100 NO at 51%

Ammon Lam

filled limit order Ṁ458/Ṁ1,000 YES at 51%

bought Ṁ15 NO from 53% to 50%

bought Ṁ20 YES from 51% to 53%

bought Ṁ5 YES from 50% to 51%

Gigacasting

bought Ṁ2 NO from 51% to 50%

bought Ṁ3 NO at 51%

bought Ṁ1 NO from 52% to 51%

bought Ṁ5 YES from 50% to 52%

created limit order for Ṁ400 YES at 46% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ400 NO at 54% (cancelled)

filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ500 NO at 53% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ500 YES at 47% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ2 NO at 51% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ2 YES at 49%

created limit order for Ṁ50 YES at 46%

created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 54%

Cooley

created limit order for Ṁ200 NO at 55%

Cooley

created limit order for Ṁ200 YES at 45%

bought Ṁ4 YES from 49% to 50%

filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ10 YES at 49%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

bought Ṁ15 NO from 51% to 45%

created limit order for Ṁ5 NO at 80%

created limit order for Ṁ5 YES at 20%

created limit order for Ṁ30 YES at 40%

created limit order for Ṁ30 NO at 60%

Pierogi🥟

bought Ṁ1 YES from 50% to 51%

filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 YES at 50% (cancelled)

2br02b

bought Ṁ10 NO from 55% to 48%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

bought Ṁ20 YES from 40% to 55%

Ammon Lam

bought Ṁ15 NO from 50% to 40%

BRTD

bought Ṁ10 NO from 57% to 50%

tob

bought Ṁ5 NO from 62% to 57%

filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 NO at 62% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 YES from 58% to 65%