Gamble_market avatar
resolved Nov 21
Daily Double or Nothing Market (Nov 20)
Resolved
NO

This is a double or nothing market intended to allow participants to gamble their M$. To prevent manipulation of outcome, resolution will be based on the random number published in the tweet of @dailyrandomnums on the next day:

https://twitter.com/dailyrandomnums?s=20&t=fe0KtOTzgfdcz6g4RmwlmQ

The market will resolve to a Yes if the first number in the tweet is even.

The market will resolve to a No if the first number in the tweet is odd.

Example: Consider the Daily Double or Nothing Market for Nov 19.

The Nov 20th tweet are as follows: """Today's random numbers: 6050 5459 3595 2366 9171 0939 1949 4707 3434; today's random dice rolls: 2 5 1 5 3 5 3 3 6"""
The first number, 6050, is even therefore the market will resolve to a Yes.

Market closes at 11:59pm ET of each day.



🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1
Unknown user avatar
Isaac King
Ṁ100
2
Unknown user avatar
dggL
Ṁ86
3
Unknown user avatar
arae
Ṁ52
4
Unknown user avatar
James Sully
Ṁ26
5
Unknown user avatar
Gary H. Rei
Ṁ22
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Gamble_market avatar
Gamble market
is predicting YES at 53%

Resolution tweet: """Today's random numbers: 2999 3527 5666 0287 6695 6901 8013 4894 1431; today's random dice rolls: 6 6 5 4 5 2 6 3 6"""

MichaelWheatley avatar

When you think about it, every market with probability 50% is already a double or nothing market.

Gamble_market avatar
Gamble market
is predicting YES at 51%

@MichaelWheatley only if you assume that the market is perfectly efficient

IsaacKing avatar

How on earth does this market have 13 traders

Cutie avatar
dggL
bought Ṁ15 of NO
Gamble_market avatar

@IsaacKing what, you doesnt like pure gamble??

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
bought Ṁ0 of YES

@Gamble_market It's EV negative to bet away from 50%, so I'm just surprised that so many people are doing so.

Gamble_market avatar
Gamble market
bought Ṁ5 of YES

@IsaacKing Casinos in Las Vegas generates over 10 billion of revenue each year, so that's a bigger puzzle to solve

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting YES at 51%

@Gamble_market Yeah but I didn't think those people were on Manifold. :)

Cutie avatar
dggL
is predicting NO at 51%

@IsaacKing You might say that they’re……..ඞ

tob avatar
tob
bought Ṁ5 of NO

Please add some time zone info to the description ...

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
bought Ṁ4 of YES

@tob The Twitter account only tweets once a day, so time zone shouldn't matter.