resolved Nov 21
Daily Double or Nothing Market (Nov 20)
Resolved
NO

This is a double or nothing market intended to allow participants to gamble their M\$. To prevent manipulation of outcome, resolution will be based on the random number published in the tweet of @dailyrandomnums on the next day:

The market will resolve to a Yes if the first number in the tweet is even.

The market will resolve to a No if the first number in the tweet is odd.

Example: Consider the Daily Double or Nothing Market for Nov 19.

The Nov 20th tweet are as follows: """Today's random numbers: 6050 5459 3595 2366 9171 0939 1949 4707 3434; today's random dice rolls: 2 5 1 5 3 5 3 3 6"""
The first number, 6050, is even therefore the market will resolve to a Yes.

Market closes at 11:59pm ET of each day.

#NameTotal profit
1
Isaac King
Ṁ100
2
dggL
Ṁ86
3
arae
Ṁ52
4
James Sully
Ṁ26
5
Gary H. Rei
Ṁ22
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Gamble market
is predicting YES at 53%

Resolution tweet: """Today's random numbers: 2999 3527 5666 0287 6695 6901 8013 4894 1431; today's random dice rolls: 6 6 5 4 5 2 6 3 6"""

When you think about it, every market with probability 50% is already a double or nothing market.

Gamble market
is predicting YES at 51%

@MichaelWheatley only if you assume that the market is perfectly efficient

How on earth does this market have 13 traders

dggL
bought Ṁ15 of NO

@IsaacKing what, you doesnt like pure gamble??

Isaac King
bought Ṁ0 of YES

@Gamble_market It's EV negative to bet away from 50%, so I'm just surprised that so many people are doing so.

Gamble market
bought Ṁ5 of YES

@IsaacKing Casinos in Las Vegas generates over 10 billion of revenue each year, so that's a bigger puzzle to solve

Isaac King
is predicting YES at 51%

@Gamble_market Yeah but I didn't think those people were on Manifold. :)

dggL
is predicting NO at 51%

@IsaacKing You might say that they’re……..ඞ

tob
bought Ṁ5 of NO

Isaac King
bought Ṁ4 of YES

@tob The Twitter account only tweets once a day, so time zone shouldn't matter.