Will Congress pass legislation that significantly reforms campaign finance rules, such as new limits on donations or increased disclosure requirements?

Resolution criteria: Market resolves YES if Congress passes (and President signs) any bill that makes substantial changes to campaign finance laws. Changes must include at least one of: new contribution limits, enhanced disclosure requirements, or public financing provisions.

References:

• https://repository.law.umich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2723&context=articles

  Background

  Campaign finance reform has been a contentious issue since the Supreme Court's landmark Citizens United v. FEC decision in 2010. While various proposals like the DISCLOSE Act have been introduced in Congress, no major reforms have been enacted. Current regulations stem primarily from the Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) and the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) of 2002.

  Resolution Criteria

  Market resolves YES if Congress passes and the President signs legislation that makes substantial changes to campaign finance laws, including at least one of:

  • New contribution limits

  • Enhanced disclosure requirements

  • Public financing provisions

  The market resolves NO if:

  • No campaign finance legislation is passed

  • Passed legislation only makes minor technical adjustments (like inflation adjustments to existing limits)

  • The President vetoes the legislation

  • The changes are purely administrative or regulatory without new legislation

  Considerations

  • Campaign finance reform bills have historically faced significant opposition in Congress

  • Recent legislative efforts have focused primarily on disclosure requirements

  • Changes could come as part of a larger electoral reform package

  • Supreme Court precedents like Citizens United limit certain types of reforms, particularly restrictions on independent expenditures

• Update 2025-06-01 (PST): - New contribution limits must impose restrictions, such as lowering maximum donation amounts, rather than increasing them. (AI summary of creator comment)