Will Congress pass legislation that significantly reforms campaign finance rules, such as new limits on donations or increased disclosure requirements?
Resolution criteria: Market resolves YES if Congress passes (and President signs) any bill that makes substantial changes to campaign finance laws. Changes must include at least one of: new contribution limits, enhanced disclosure requirements, or public financing provisions.
References:
https://repository.law.umich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2723&context=articles
Background
Campaign finance reform has been a contentious issue since the Supreme Court's landmark Citizens United v. FEC decision in 2010. While various proposals like the DISCLOSE Act have been introduced in Congress, no major reforms have been enacted. Current regulations stem primarily from the Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) and the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) of 2002.
Resolution Criteria
Market resolves YES if Congress passes and the President signs legislation that makes substantial changes to campaign finance laws, including at least one of:
New contribution limits
Enhanced disclosure requirements
Public financing provisions
The market resolves NO if:
No campaign finance legislation is passed
Passed legislation only makes minor technical adjustments (like inflation adjustments to existing limits)
The President vetoes the legislation
The changes are purely administrative or regulatory without new legislation
Considerations
Campaign finance reform bills have historically faced significant opposition in Congress
Recent legislative efforts have focused primarily on disclosure requirements
Changes could come as part of a larger electoral reform package
Supreme Court precedents like Citizens United limit certain types of reforms, particularly restrictions on independent expenditures
Update 2025-06-01 (PST): - New contribution limits must impose restrictions, such as lowering maximum donation amounts, rather than increasing them. (AI summary of creator comment)
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When's the deadline (i.e. by when does Congress have to pass legislation for the market to resolve YES)? July, when the market closes? If so, then haha good luck, no chance with billionares running the govt. Maybe in a decade or five, but definitely not within the year.
@Gameknight definitely agree and think that the odds are very slim, but you never know, optimistic glass half full kind of person could be interested in the higher potential payout of the precious purple m tokens 💁♀️
and the deadline is Jul 1, 2025 at 8:00:00 PM
@GageMason For clarification, will this market still resolve YES if the reform legislation allows significantly more campaign donations? The wording suggests yes but I feel like the spirit of the question is reform, not "more money to give to politicians".
Market resolves YES if Congress passes and the President signs legislation that makes substantial changes to campaign finance laws, including at least one of:
New contribution limits
Enhanced disclosure requirements
Public financing provisions
The market resolves NO if:
No campaign finance legislation is passed
Passed legislation only makes minor technical adjustments (like inflation adjustments to existing limits)
The President vetoes the legislation
The changes are purely administrative or regulatory without new legislation
@GageMason so yes, it would count if the contribution limit is significantly raised.
Well then. Maybe I should buy some YES shares.
@Gameknight it would be no, wouldn’t it?
The way I interpreted it is that it would be a yes for new contribution ‘’limits’ added, so less money total. kind of is worded weird sorry about that.