Will the "major flare-up in Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022?" market have a prediction of 99% on March 1

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Will the "6. Will there be a major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022?" market have a prediction of 99% or greater on March 1? At the time of creating this market, it needs a YES bet of M$669 or greater to bring the prediction to 99%. Decided by the market value at 00:00 EST on March 1, 2022. https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-there-be-a-major-flareup-worse Feb 28, 10:24am: Just FYI, I do not hold any non-ANTE shares (other than M$1 for comments that I immediately resold) of this market and I do not hold any shares of the target market. I am also precommitting to not buying any more shares of this market (again, other than the M$1 for comments) or the target market Feb 28, 10:13pm: More precise resolution criteria: using the API endpoint for the market (https://manifold.markets/api/v0/market/Xydcz7oCHIoab5u0PQJW), check if the probAfter >= 0.99 for the last trade with created time less than or equal to 1646110800000 Mar 1, 12:11am: The final probability was 0.977, with a sale of M$51 of YES shares at 23:59:59.368. Very impressive showing here though, the probability ranged from 92% to 100% within the five minutes before midnight!

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

🐳 ftw

sold Ṁ198 of YES

Take your two coins. I think I shaved more off your 50 over there :P

bought Ṁ1 of YES

Seems like a tragedy of the commons for NO, where few people are willing to lose money on the original market to ensure success in this market.

bought Ṁ1 of NO

Scott holds a tremendous amount of power over this market. It he wants to become a whale, now's a great chance.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

Maybe what we need is a flurry of similarly-timed distraction markets to tempt the whales at closing time.

bought Ṁ300 of NO

Getting it to 99% takes about 40-100 times as much money as getting it away from 99%. 10 people might try to buy 10$ of NO at the last second, but I don't expect 10 people to buy 700$ of YES at the last second.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Who wants to tie up their funds for 10 months for a 1% return over there?

bought Ṁ1 of YES

My understanding is that the ACX markets will not be resolved until the end of the year, but if that market does resolve positively then this market also will resolve positively. If that market resolves negatively then this market will also resolve negatively.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

If for some reason that market *resolved* as YES how would this market resolve?

bought Ṁ300 of YES

a bit of a YOLO

bought Ṁ1 of YES

A prediction of either 100% or 99% will resolve positively, a prediction of 98% or less will resolve negatively.

bought Ṁ1 of NO

What if the prediction will be at 100%? (only needs M$ 1300 on YES and would mean getting the money back)

bought Ṁ1 of YES

The people aiming to manipulate the other market down won't get their money back, and the people aiming to manipulate it up eventually will. That creates some asymmetry.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

There's definitely room for it to be manipulated, but people can pull it either direction. This is an experiment - I want to see if introducing a derivative market like this can cause the real market to become more accurate, or if there will be issues with manipulation due to low liquidity.

bought Ṁ2 of NO

This would be easy to manipulate, no?

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