Will the "major flare-up in Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022?" market have a prediction of 99% on March 1
41
100Ṁ29k
resolved Mar 1
Resolved
NO
Will the "6. Will there be a major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022?" market have a prediction of 99% or greater on March 1? At the time of creating this market, it needs a YES bet of M$669 or greater to bring the prediction to 99%. Decided by the market value at 00:00 EST on March 1, 2022. https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-there-be-a-major-flareup-worse Feb 28, 10:24am: Just FYI, I do not hold any non-ANTE shares (other than M$1 for comments that I immediately resold) of this market and I do not hold any shares of the target market. I am also precommitting to not buying any more shares of this market (again, other than the M$1 for comments) or the target market Feb 28, 10:13pm: More precise resolution criteria: using the API endpoint for the market (https://manifold.markets/api/v0/market/Xydcz7oCHIoab5u0PQJW), check if the probAfter >= 0.99 for the last trade with created time less than or equal to 1646110800000 Mar 1, 12:11am: The final probability was 0.977, with a sale of M$51 of YES shares at 23:59:59.368. Very impressive showing here though, the probability ranged from 92% to 100% within the five minutes before midnight!
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