If there is a vote to remove Mike Johnson as speaker, will House Democrats save him?
resolved May 8

When Kevin McCarthy was removed as Speaker of the House, it was voted in favor by 208 Democrats and 8 Republicans, with 0 Democrats and 210 Republicans opposed. There is reporting that centrist Democrats would not do this if there is a motion to vacate against the current Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson. Will Democrats oppose such a motion to vacate?


Resolves N/A if there is not a motion to vacate the Speaker before the end of this Congress. Otherwise refers to the next vote to vacate that occurs during this Congress. Resolves YES if Democrats are the decisive factor in keeping Johnson as Speaker, and resolves NO if Johnson is removed as Speaker or if Democrats are not the decisive factor in keeping Johnson.

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Technically the Democrats supported a motion to table, and the motion to vacate never got voted on. I don't actually think you resolved this wrongly, but I lost a lot of mana so I feel sort of obligated to say that your N/A condition in the description was technically met.

bought Ṁ400 YES

To rephrase the logic (this should be the same thing as the description):

IF Johnson stays as speaker AND if Democrats had acted differently he would no longer be speaker

THEN resolves YES

ELSE resolves NO

In other words, if Democrats vote present or don't show up, so Johnson isn't out, and they could have voted him out, this would resolve YES. This could also resolve YES if they simply vote to keep him.

I've edited the title to "If there is a vote to remove Mike Johnson as speaker, will House Democrats save him?". This was always how the market was described to resolve, this just makes it clear from the title.

@Gabrielle just want to clarify, does this resolve on the results of the first MTV to get a vote?

@SemioticRivalry Yes, it will be whichever is the next vote on a motion to vacate (I'm not 100% sure of the technical terms here), assuming there is one this Congress.

bought Ṁ100 NO

"when the enemy is making a false movement we must take good care not to interrupt him." - Napoleon (or someone else who said something similar)

Reportedly MTG has filed a motion to vacate. If so and it comes to a vote, this market will refer to that vote.

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 50% order
bought Ṁ20 NO

@SemioticRivalry Mike Johnson has shown 0 daylight between him and Trump. There’s no a shot in hell that he “does the right thing” here.

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