If the US fails to pass a deal and reaches the debt limit, will they avoid defaulting on debt obligations for at least one month? It has been suggested that other payment obligations, such as government salaries and disability benefits, could be suspended before debt payments are suspended, so that there is not a financial crisis. Will these measures be taken?
This only applies to the USA debt limit crisis of 2023.
The one month timer starts once the US Treasury announces that the debt limit has been reached. This is expected to happen around June 6, 2023.
This will resolve NO immediately if the US defaults on any Treasury securities issued by the US government.
This will resolve YES if the US has not defaulted by the time a month has passed.
This will resolve YES immediately if the debt limit is raised after the debt limit is reached but before a month has passed, and the US has not already defaulted by that point.
This will resolve N/A if the debt limit is raised so that it will not be reached until at least 2024.
This will stay open if the debt limit is raised only a small amount, so that the breach would happen later this year. This will "restart" once that new limit is reached.
This comment is a bit late, but the question is worded technically incorrectly. "debt limit has been reached" needs to be something like "US has run out of money to pay its obligations" or more colloquially "X-date has been reached". I think everyone probably knows what you meant though so it should resolve N/A when Biden signs the debt limit increase.
The US hit the debt limit in January, and has been at the limit ever since then, using the so-called "extraordinary measures" to shuffle money around and keep paying the bills without issuing more debt.
I wrote up more details in my market https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-us-raise-the-debt-ceiling and here's a source https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/19/politics/debt-ceiling-deadline-treasury/index.html
@jack Good point, the question is really about when the treasury department runs out of extraordinary measures.