Will a scandal erupt around Donald Trump before the 2024 election that costs him >.5% of his support base?
7
37
Ṁ120Ṁ170
Jan 22
65%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
predicts NO
I suppose the only possible measurement would have to be based on polling aggregates. His “base” would be considered respondents who have consistently supported him no matter the poll or topic, up until the time of the scandal. At any rate, the Trump “unshakeable” base is quite well established, and any crack in it should be noticeable if not precisely measurable.
Related questions
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
46% chance
Will Donald Trump win 2024 presidential election?
48% chance
Will Donald Trump be convicted of a crime before the 2024 election?
80% chance
Will Donald Trump ever lose his lead in the polls before Election Day 2024 for two consecutive weeks?
75% chance
Will Trump lose the Republican primary?
3% chance
If Donald Trump wins the 2024 Presidential Election, will he lose the popular vote by >5 million votes?
18% chance
Will Donald Trump be the winner of the 2024 Presidental Election?
43% chance
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Election?
47% chance
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US presidential election?
47% chance