On August 25, 2025, French Prime Minister François Bayrou announced he will seek a confidence vote from parliament on September 8 over his €44 billion austerity budget plan. Opposition parties including the National Rally, Socialists, Greens, and France Unbowed have all stated they will vote against the government.

Context:

• Bayrou leads a minority government that needs parliamentary backing for his plan to cut France's deficit (currently 5.8% of GDP, well above the EU's 3% limit)

• His budget includes controversial measures like reducing public holidays and freezing welfare spending

• The confidence vote will take place just two days before planned nationwide protests on September 10

Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to YES if the Bayrou government loses the confidence vote on September 8, 2025, resulting in the government's fall. It resolves to NO if the government survives the vote.

Source: https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250825-french-opposition-parties-vow-to-overthrow-bayrou-government-in-sept-8-confidence-vote