High propensity is defined as anyone who has voted in a primary or midterm election since 2017. Low propensity is defined as everyone who hasn't done that.

For example, if high propensity voters voted D+2, and low propensity voters voted R+7, this market would resolve to D+8 - D+12 as high propensity voters voted D+9 relative to low propensity voters.

Inspired by this tweet/thread https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747671830502981691

Resolves based on most accurate data available, potentially some time after the election is finished. If high propensity voters vote more republican than low propensity voters, that resolves as D+4 or less.

I will not bet.