High propensity is defined as anyone who has voted in a primary or midterm election since 2017. Low propensity is defined as everyone who hasn't done that.
For example, if high propensity voters voted D+2, and low propensity voters voted R+7, this market would resolve to D+8 - D+12 as high propensity voters voted D+9 relative to low propensity voters.
Inspired by this tweet/thread https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747671830502981691
Resolves based on most accurate data available, potentially some time after the election is finished. If high propensity voters vote more republican than low propensity voters, that resolves as D+4 or less.
I will not bet.
1,000People are also trading
I was too lazy to resolve this so I just asked claude for sources, it found these
https://catalist.us/whathappened2024/#ib-toc-anchor-17
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/voter-turnout-2020-2024/
neither of these have any information about primary voting record, and like yeah they're the most accurate data possible, but I feel like this difference very likely changes the actual composition of voters which I don't feel is in the spirit of the market.
@FreshFrier sorry, I meant these two tweets
https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747664129345597449?s=20
https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747664129345597449?s=20
The fact that low-propensity democrats are abandoning Biden at astonishing rates while ~zero Republicans do the same with Trump is kind of extraordinary