Will there be more searches for GPT-4 than for ChatGPT on any day before July 2023?
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resolved Jul 1
Resolved
NO

I will use google trends to resolve the market

https://trends.google.com.br/trends/explore?hl=pt-BR&tz=180&date=today+1-m&q=ChatGPT,GPT-4&sni=6

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predicted NO
bought Ṁ100 of NO

why is this >1%

predicted NO

@Dreamingpast Probably the time value of Mana. Other markets resolving sooner are more poorly valued.

predicted NO

ChatGPT peaked once more :)

<script type="text/javascript" src="https://ssl.gstatic.com/trends_nrtr/3261_RC08/embed_loader.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> trends.embed.renderExploreWidget("TIMESERIES", {"comparisonItem":[{"keyword":"ChatGPT","geo":"","time":"today 1-m"},{"keyword":"GPT-4","geo":"","time":"today 1-m"}],"category":0,"property":""}, {"exploreQuery":"date=today%201-m&q=ChatGPT,GPT-4&hl=pt-BR&tz=180","guestPath":"https://trends.google.com.br:443/trends/embed/"}); </script>

predicted NO

With the plugins for ChatGPT just announced? Lmao even at 4% this is too much

bought Ṁ100 of NO
predicted NO

@firstuserhere Barely a blip compared to chatgpt popularity

bought Ṁ40 of NO

Last 7 days

bought Ṁ100 of NO

ChatGPT interest is currently 20x higher than GPT-4: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%201-d&q=gpt-4,chatgpt&hl=en

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Not if they are planning to incorporate it via the ChatGPT UI.

bought Ṁ200 of NO

Bing Chat has gotten a lot more mainstream coverage than I expect GPT 4 to get, and it's still nowhere close.

predicted YES

@HenriThunberg I wouldn't say it's nowhere close. It's not even publicly available yet (without a waitlist), and is at like 30% of chatGPT volume - doesn't seem crazy that it could surpass on one day. Also, most of chatGPT traffic is IMO people having it write essays or something for them, and GPT 4 might get some of that traffic if it's significantly better?

predicted NO

@dominic True, there's actually a few days in December where it was a close call between Bing/ChatGPT. But that's pretty much all due to the Bing baseline. The uptick in Bing, or Bing Chat is a small dent.

Don't know what you mean by GPT-4 having 30% of the volume, show us please? :)

predicted YES

@HenriThunberg Oh, based on the initial chart you gave, it seemed like bing was hovering around 25 average while chatGPT was around 80, so around 30%. You're right that the bing baseline seems to be impacting it somewhat as well, so maybe it's closer to like 15% or so.

I still think this is undervalued at 22% though, seems like lots of things could happen to get this to resolve positively.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

It's really tempting with the "any day" condition, but I think it's easy to underestimate the extent of the coverage ChatGPT has received outside of nerd circles. And that coverage is still reaching the fattest part of the normal distribution of AI/chatbot interest.

+ you should also factor in the below. Very very unlikely to resolve to YES unless it's even released.

bought Ṁ30 of YES

It just has to be on one day - seems very likely that on e.g. the day GPT-4 is released, it will have more searches for it than for chatGPT.

predicted NO

@DominicDebettencourt you could compare with the release of gpt-3

predicted YES

@FranklinBaldo Release of GPT-3 was all the way back in June 2020, when there were a lot of other things going on as well as much less general public knowledge of AI. It doesn't even have to beat out peak chatGPT, just has to beat out chatGPT searches on the same day. chatGPT interest is already fading somewhat, and GPT-4 I've heard is very impressive.

predicted NO

Related

ChatGPT has the capabilities it does because of the PPO finetuning, and has the public awareness it does because of its easy-to-use public interface. Unless GPT4 has both of these baked into the release and its capabilities blow GPT-3.5 (which ChatGPT is based on) out of the water, there's no way this popularity level will be achieved.