On June 29th, the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) is set to announce the results of a 15-year long scientific study on low-frequency gravitational waves. This could potentially confirm the existence of Supermassive Black Hole Binaries (SMBHBs).
NANOGrav is a collaborative project with the goal of detecting gravitational waves by observing radio signals from pulsars. These are highly magnetized, rapidly spinning neutron stars that emit a beam of electromagnetic radiation. The project has been observing pulsars for 15 years, making it a long-term and dedicated effort in the field of astrophysics.
Supermassive Black Hole Binaries (SMBHBs), on the other hand, are systems where two black holes, each potentially the size of several billion solar masses, orbit each other in close proximity. Their existence is still a matter of theoretical speculation and has not yet been definitively confirmed.
If the existence of SMBHBs is confirmed, it would be a significant step forward in our understanding of the universe. It could potentially open doors for the testing of quantum gravity and the development of a grand unified theory that combines General Relativity and Quantum Mechanics.
This market will resolve as 'Yes' if NANOGrav confirms the existence of SMBHBs on June 29th, 2023, and 'No' if they do not. Please follow the announcement from NANOGrav for the final result.
Sources:
- [Twitter thread discussing the upcoming NANOGrav announcement](https://twitter.com/puwulitics/status/1673101079217569792?s=19)
- [Wikipedia page on NANOGrav](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NANOGrav)
- [Wikipedia page on Supermassive Black Hole Binaries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binary_black_hole)
Resolution Criteria: The market will resolve to 'Yes' if NANOGrav officially confirms the existence of SMBHBs in their announcement on June 29th, 2023. If no such confirmation is made, or if the announcement is not made on that date, the market will resolve to 'No'. Please follow official statements from NANOGrav for accurate resolution.
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https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02167-7
the most likely source of the latest finding is the combined signal from many pairs of much larger black holes — millions or even billions of times the mass of the Sun — slowly orbiting each other in the hearts of distant galaxies. These waves are thousands of times stronger and longer than those found in 2015, with wavelengths of up to tens of light years.
“We can tell that the Earth is jiggling due to gravitational waves that are sweeping our Galaxy,” says Scott Ransom, an astrophysicist at the US National Radio Astronomy Observatory in Charlottesville, Virginia, and a senior member of NANOGrav, one of four collaborations that announced separate results on 29 June1–4.
“We’re not using the ‘d’ word — for detection — yet,” says Ransom. “But we do think this is strong evidence.”
'Strong evidence but not yet detection' sounds stronger than 'consistent with' question posted earlier?
“I guess the elephant in the room is we’re still not 100% sure that it’s produced by supermassive black hole binaries. That is definitely our best guess, and it’s fully consistent with the data, but we’re not positive,” said Kelley, UC Berkeley assistant adjunct professor of astronomy. “If it is binaries, then that’s the first time that we’ve actually confirmed that supermassive black hole binaries exist, which has been a huge puzzle for more than 50 years now.”
https://news.berkeley.edu/2023/06/28/after-15-years-pulsar-timing-yields-evidence-of-cosmic-gravitational-wave-background/
As someone who is not a physicist, I created this market to gauge the general sentiment about whether it is likely that NANOGrav will confirm the existence of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs).
I understand your point about the nuance between an observation being 'consistent with' SMBHBs and it providing definitive 'confirmation' of their existence. However, given the nature of scientific investigation, which often involves the progressive elimination of hypotheses, I believe it's reasonable to consider a 'YES' resolution for this market if NANOGrav announces observations that are consistent with the presence of SMBHBs.