closes Jan 1, 2023
This is market A. It resolves to PROB set by market B top response.
46%
chance

Here is market B:

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Franklin Baldo
bought Ṁ20 of NO

Here is market B:

Amit Amin
bought Ṁ10 of YES

I'm not sure I understand how this market works. I can only buy YES or NO. So if Market B resolves to 80%... how does Market A resolve?

Tassilo Neubauer
bought Ṁ10 of NO

@AmitAmin I think you can resolve markets as a certain percentage. Resolution does not have to be binary.

Amit Amin
is predicting YES at 48%

@TassiloNeubauer So a resolution of 80% would pay out 80 cents to those with YES and 20 cents to those with NO?

Tassilo Neubauer
is predicting NO at 48%

@AmitAmin Something like that. Not completely sure.

@AmitAmin Yes.

The number of shares is equal to the Payout if YES / Payout if NO.

A resolution of 80% pays out M0.8 per YES share and M0.2 per NO share. The total payout is the same as the expectation at a probability of 80%. In other words, regardless of YES or NO, if you placed a bet at a probability of 80%, and it is resolved to a probability of 80%, your gain or loss is 0.