Resolves to market minus 10%
39
70
แน€790
resolved Feb 12
Resolved as
85%

Resolves to market%-10%, if result<=0 resolves NO.

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Get แน€200 play money

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bought แน€5,000 of YES

well.

bought แน€20 of NO

@8 done.

Investment / YES profit / NO profit

M300 / 237.21 / 33

M500 / 499.6 / 51

M800 / 618.05 / 72

M1000 / 613.6 / 84

M2000 / 502.4 / 127

sold แน€44 of NO

I've only just realised that all these markets resolve in the middle of the night for me so I'm going to post my thoughts here in case any NO bettors haven't understood the market dynamics yet.

The whole game is "who can be the last mover". Naively it looks like NO is the only winning move, but if somebody buys just 300M of YES right now they move it to 60% and make like 300M profit and almost all NO bettors (myself included) will lose. That's assuming nobody comes along and buys NO afterwards. If they do, they win. It's all about who gets to be the last mover.

Limit orders can help individual NO bettors but only if the YES mover stops just after your limit order, which he has an incentive not to do. (For example all those small limit orders between 13% and 20% are worse than useless; the YES mover will go right past you. Franklin has more than enough mana. And having those NO limit orders there increases the profit he can make by YES moving.)

You can guarantee yourself a profit by exponentially increasing limit orders, but you'd need to start pretty small. I haven't calculated it exactly but the necessary amount grows fast with %. Or you can just place one big limit order and hope Franklin (or any other YES mover) stops just after yours. (Maybe if we all place one large limit order in a different place we could disincentivise moving, but that sounds like hard coordination.)

Or, of course, you can try to be the last mover. Franklin has 20 of these markets. It seems hard to believe he's able to place a bet at the last second for all 20.

Personally I wish I'd realised that I'd be asleep at market resolution and then I'd never have bet. As it is I'm hoping some NO bettor in another time zone can save me. Good luck.

predicted NO

@Fion Previously Franklin had only a couple of these markets (+10% & -10%), then after those resolved he went ahead and made these 20. Last time it didn't work out for his defector strategy because of the exponential pile on close to the resolution date you mentioned. I'm assuming that he's now planning on focusing his last-minute buying on a fraction of these new markets, banking on the diluted mass of opposing users not being able to counter him effectively.