Will more than 100 people be killed in Russia by presumed pro-Ukrainian activity in 2023?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

A death is presumed connected to Ukraine if it's claimed to be by at least one official representative of Russia or Ukraine, or by the perpetrators themselves. For instance Darya Dugina counts, as Russian officials accused Ukraine, even if they deny. The Bryansk incident also counts, since the perpetrators declared their allegiance to Ukraine. If someone is murdered for reasons likely connected with the war, but no one implies Ukrainian involvement, it doesn't count.

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I'm trying to count up the current number of casualties using this Wikipedia article:

There were two people killed in assassination attempts, Zakhar Prilepin's bodyguard and Navy Captain Stanislav Rzhitsky.

There were two people killed in the March 2nd Bryansk Oblast raid.

In the later Belgorod Oblast raids Russia claimed that at least 14 servicemembers, 1 border guard, and 13 civilians were killed.

According to this article, three people in Belgorod were killed by a drone. There is a pretty vague report that some Russians in Kursk were killed by a hijacked drone as well, but no concrete numbers.

I assume the Wagner rebellion doesn't count as pro-Ukrainian, so I won't count those deaths.

So, unless I've missed something (very possible) it looks like we're currently at 35 officially confirmed deaths.

predicted NO

@Anovak Russia claims that Ukrainian shelling killed 14 people in Belgorod on Saturday and an additional 2 people in Belgorod and Bryansk on Friday. That brings my tally to 51 deaths.

predicted NO

@Anovak The latest news reports have revised the number of people killed in Belgorod on Saturday to 24. I think this is not counting the additional 2 people killed on Friday, but I'm not certain. I believe this brings the count to 61 deaths.

For the purposes of this question, I take it that the territories that both sides claim are not considered to be part of Russia, even if they're under Russian control, right?