Will any presidential candidate be shot at or assassinated before the end of the election? (Attempted or successful)
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resolved Sep 16
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YES

Yes, this is a dark question, and although no one should wish that on anyone… as an outsider to the US, it’s not unlikely given the tense political climate and the American aptitude towards firearms or other weapon's.

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Note to all of those arguing in the comments. I made this question to see how volatile it would get in the states and indeed someone did attempt to assasinate. The title is quite clear “Shot at or assasinated” was the first criteria ye. And the second was “attempted or successful”. Since both a shot and an assassination were attempted I think it’s only fair to resolve this yes.

Hi all, apologies for the inactivity, this is kind of a weird edge case indeed cause he wasn’t really shot at and didn’t really get that far either. Nonetheless if the BBC, likely one of the last publications to do so without merit and others of a similar ilk are all reporting this as an assassination attempt then I will resolve this as yes.

@ForesterChristensen The question was about whether he was shot at, not whether there was an assassination attempt.

@ForesterChristensen The resolution criteria are clear and this event does not meet them. The criteria make no mention of what the BBC thinks. The question should be unresolved.

@AndrewHebb “…or assassinated…(attempted or successful)” this was indeed an attempted assassination. Whether you’re talking about attempting to assassinate or attempting to shoot he was indeed doing both.

@Balasar this was an attempted assassination which does meet the criteria. The inclusion of a publication is merely to back up this point.

@ForesterChristensen The guy never attempted anything, he just waited around with a gun. While someone might reasonably assume that he wanted to assassinate Trump, he only demonstrated intent to attempt, because he never did anything that would actually lead to Trump's death. Standing around menacingly with a gun may preclude assassination, but it is not assassination.

@ForesterChristensen There's a reason he's been charged with unlawful possession of a firearm and not attempted murder.

@Balasar I understand your point and I’m sure it could be argued for days. But I’m going to look at the what the majority of reputable sources (and non reputable ones for that matter) are reporting which is an assasination attempt and resolve it yes.

@ForesterChristensen He went there to try and do it. That's an attempt.

This is an interesting edge case.

sold Ṁ26 YES

Does a bullet have to graze an ear for there to be an attempted assassination?

Bro, this is so stupid. This was clearly assassination attempt. And obviously is within the spirit of the prompt. But I guess I should join the nothing ever happens crowd because no matter what there will always be some ambiguous phrasing or technicality that prevents any prompt from being resolved

@AshtonIvanov no the title is very clear a shot must be taken. Just being close with a gun is not enough.

@datachef No it’s not very clear otherwise this mess wouldn’t be happening

@datachef My point is just that there was an assasssination attempted which is clearly in the spirit of prompt. The phrasing is a little ambiguous but if Trump was nearly stabbed to death, would you be arguing that the prompt shouldn’t be resolved because Trump was neither shot at nor assassinated

@AshtonIvanov The spirit is irrelevant. No one knows what the spirit of the question is. We know what the question is literally asking.

@AshtonIvanov your right, not just in spirit but in fact aswell. It could be written more clearly but it does say attempted or successful and when referring to either shots being taken “OR” an assasination both of these were attempted. Hence has been resolved yes, you are correct.

@AndrewHebb @ForesterChristensen

Words can usually be “literally”interpreted many different ways when I say spirit of the question I am talking about the meaning, meant by the author of the post as opposed to other literal interpretations.

Similarly if you ask an evil genie for $1 billion and he gives it to you in Monopoly money you would be pissed because even though both interpretations are literal one is clearly what was meant by and is the obvious spirit of the wish.

@AshtonIvanov well put 🫡

@mods this needs mod intervention because the market creator is inactive. I'm not going to resolve this one because I have a large position already.

This is being delayed because the would-be assassin on Sep. 15 didn't get a shot off before he was stopped?

bought Ṁ500 NO

@JeffBerman I think that's correct. I just bet on the assumption this market is still open.

@JeffBerman indefinitely

@JeffBerman this is still open because the market creator is inactive.

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