>>> Resolves 50% if there is no colony around either planet by a particular date <<<

Important: This is totally a real-world predictive market, and not at all an excuse for a market that is guaranteed to resolve at 50%. If it were such a market, you could use it to dump your mana into by making large limit orders at 49-51% and accumulate 5% annual interest over time (as of 11 January 2026). But this is definitely not such a market!

Details:

This will resolve YES if there is a Jupiter colony before a particular date and before any Saturn colony. It will resolve NO if there is a Saturn colony before a particular date and before there is any Jupiter colony.

For a colony to count, it must be large, with at least 1000 living humans in it for 1 contiguous month. It is allowed to orbit the planet, but it must be located on average within 1.5 * Planet Radius from the center of the planet. After the month has passed, the starting date where the colony satisfies the criteria will be used, and all answers after that will resolve YES/NO. If no such colony exists for either planet, then an answer will resolve to 50% on the mentioned date (UTC time zone). Answers are given in the format yyyy-mm-dd. Simulated or cryopreserved humans do not count towards the total.