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Based on all the drone incidents that have happened in the past 3 months, even if I prematurely closed this market, at this point, I stand with my resolution.

Let me know if there's anyone from "NO" who will like their mana back, and I'll transfer it.

https://www.biziday.ro/270386-2/

https://www-biziday-ro.translate.goog/270386-2/?_x_tr_sl=ro&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

@PeterBuyukliev @IonMarqvardsen
I've found (1) this press release from Ministry of Foreign Affairs https://www-mae-ro.translate.goog/node/62824?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp where it says the following

[...] as a result of the identification in the county The discovery of new drone fragments similar to those used by the Russian army in Ukraine.

and (2) Romanian news article https://www-hotnews-ro.translate.goog/stiri-esential-26530943-ultima-drona-cazuta-romania-ministerul-externe-spune-anuntat-aliatii-nato-convoaca-ambasadorul-rusiei-bucuresti.htm?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp where we find

The ambassador informed the allies that, for the third time, fragments of drones similar to those used by Russia were identified on Romania's territory. The Romanian authorities remain alert and are conducting a full investigation.

[...]

"Against the background of the identification on September 13, 2023, of new fragments of a drone similar to those used by the Russian army, dispersed over an area of ​​several tens of meters, in Tulcea county, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterates its firm protest against the violation, once again , of Romania's airspace.

Would (1) and (2) be enough to finalise the proper resolution of this Market, ignoring the video I've posted this morning?

@FlorinSays that is sufficient for me, I withdraw my previous complaints. You were right, Florin.

@FlorinSays

In the sources that you reference, there are no mentioning of any explosions. So, by all likelihood, a Russian surveillance drone has gone out of control and crash landed.

No reports on anything destroyed except the drone itself.

Where do you see the word “explosion“?

If anyone feels like I've wrongly resolved this question, I'll return all their losses. Just comment below this.

@FlorinSays this video is from 13 days ago and very ambiguous. Russian drone crashing in Romania would be international news, like last time, with plenty of evidence (the drone). If you produce a real article from a reputable media, I will accept, otherwise please re-resolve or refund me.

@FlorinSays There’s still 3 months left for a prober resolution.

@IonMarqvardsen I am fine with waiting more.

Russian drone crashing in Romania would be international news

I was also waiting for this to happen, or get an update on it from the Gov. Otherwise I would have resolved this on the 13th.

@FlorinSays might be biased since I'm the largest NO bettor, but i do think a confirmation that the drone exploded, not just crashed, would be needed to resolve this YES since exploded was the word used in the question

@such I'll keep looking, but can we agree this market needs to stay closed?

@FlorinSays In the absence of any documentation of an explosion or just a broken window, the market probably should not have been closed in the first place. But I am not sure what to do now.

The video proves nothing, though I suspect the real reason for resolution may become clear when you see who the second best trader for this market is.

I've created this market because I wanted to take a bet on something that wasn't asked on manifold.

First I did it to incentivise others to bet by artificially raising the likelihood and then keeping the likelihood at a percentage where it made sense to me.

@AdamMcDonald I've also commented below for 13 days already that it's very likely that I will resolve this as a "YES" if I get confirmation for the explosion. It's not out of the blue. The only thing that I've missed is a confirmation that's a Russian drone.

@AdamMcDonald You might not like the resolution, but for me it was enough information to resolve this market

@FlorinSays You don't even have confirmation of an explosion, ignoring the fact that even if there was evidence of an audible explosion that it originated from a Russian drone. The presented evidence is laughable.

@AdamMcDonald Sorry, but I won't spend any more time arguing on this. Just let me know if you want any Mana returned and I'll do so.

@AdamMcDonald do you mind taking a look at my response here https://manifold.markets/FlorinSays/will-another-russian-drone-explode#CpanELRjDyJfqyR2ZaUU

There is no confirmation of an explosion in the video, and there is nothing absolutely nothing that says Russia from the sound of the engine.

You're right about the second part, that I might have jumped the gun without a confirmation that this is a Russian drone.

@FlorinSays I’m also right about the first part. You have no evidence of an explosion. It’s just a sound of something crashing down and a dog barking.

Based on this video https://youtu.be/cv64oWKZxIY?si=rLl0tNxs_-gxCzaD&t=30 I'll resolve this market to YES.

@FlorinSays Even if this video is from the 13th, I failed to find it sooner and the Romanian Gov is unlikely to even state that there was another drone explosion.

@FlorinSays I've created another market here for the rest of 2023. https://manifold.markets/FlorinSays/will-yet-another-russian-drone-expl

Will Yet Another Russian Drone Explode on Romanian Territory in 2023?

50% chance. Last one that exploded on Romanian territorry did so on 13th September 2023.

@FlorinSays That’s not an explosion it’s just a lawnmower engine crashing down after running out of fuel. The loudest noise is a dog barking.

@FlorinSays How is this an explosion??? What is this video supposed to prove?

@PeterBuyukliev Video proves that there was an explosion near the area that the drone fragments were found on 13th Sept.

@FlorinSays WHAT EXPLOSION