Context: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/labour-vat-b2418375.html

Labour to add VAT to private school fees immediately if it wins power

Labour says the policy could raise £1.7 billion to invest in state schools.

This market resolves YES if a Labour government removes private schools' VAT exempt status within 1 year of winning power. Passing legislation counts.

This market resolves NO in the following circumstances:

• Labour lose the next election

• Labour's manifesto for the next election does not mention private schools' VAT status (alongside a general understanding that this is because they've dropped the commitment, and not just that their manifesto is very short and doesn't mention everything)

• After winning the election, the Labour leadership make it clear that they have dropped this policy.

If one of the above criteria is met, but there is significant controversy about whether the Labour party really mean it, I may leave the market open until things become clear. I will base this on my own judgement, opinions of commenters, and the current state of the market. My rule of thumb will be that if market participants think there's still a significant chance of a YES resolution, I won't resolve NO.

If the Labour leadership say before the election that they have dropped the policy, that's not enough to trigger resolution. I would wait for the manifesto in that case.

If they implement a special VAT rate that is less than the standard VAT rate, this market resolves NO. If private schools have to pay standard VAT, even if standard VAT is lowered, market resolves YES. (If the standard VAT rate is lowered, I will update the title of the market to the value of standard VAT.)

I will not bet on this market, just in case there ends up being a judgement call.

[Commentary on prediciton markets not related to UK private schools and VAT:

I think it's most "correct" on these "will X happen by Y date" markets to wait for the close date for a NO resolution, but this has the downside that NO bettors need to wait a long time for their profits. YES bettors might get paid early, which means that the return on betting YES can be better than NO, even if the market is accurately priced. I'm trying to counteract this by allowing an early NO resolution in certain clear-cut cases. Of course it's possible that Labour will drop this policy before the election, not put it in their manifesto, and then implement it anyway, but I think that's very unlikely, so hopefully this market captures the essence of "will they implement the policy" without the long wait for a NO resolution.

If I resolve NO early, I will probably create a second market for whether they'll end up implementing the policy anyway. That will probably be a much more boring market, but it will give the opportunity for anybody who thinks this market fails to reflect the question of interest to bet on that opinion.]