This winter is expected to be an extremely difficult one for the National Health Service, with industrial action added to the usual winter surge in demand and years of low funding to services.
(For example: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/nov/15/nhs-staff-petrified-bad-winter-hospitals-england)
On the other hand, the government is generally reluctant to take action that requires telling people what to do.
To resolve this market, I will consider "government restrictions" to be imposed if any one of the following is true:
The government uses the word "lockdown" in a press release to describe the action they're taking
Schools OR Pubs OR bars OR clubs OR restaurants OR cafes OR cinemas are required to close nationally for at least one day. (By nationally I mean in any one of the four nations of the UK.)
Government instruction to the effect of "please stay at home except for essential purposes" (with legal consequences such as a fine for failing to follow the instruction)
Government instruction to the effect of "do not gather indoors with other households" (with legal consequences as above)
By "winter" I just mean until the market closes on the 31st of March.
In the unlikely event that a new serious epidemic happens in the next few weeks I suppose I'll resolve YES as long as it's primarily considered a respiratory illness. (Not really in the spirit of the question, since I really have covid and flu in mind, but I think it has to count.)
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@Daconomist Ah, good point. I forgot about travel bans. Yes, I think they should count, if it's an actual ban. If it's just "people arriving from China who test positive must isolate" then I don't think I will count that, but if it's "nobody is allowed to arrive from China" or even "everybody arriving from China must isolate (regardless of test)" then it counts.
@Fion People who have already placed NO bets, if my comment above substantially changes how you would have bet and you feel like you have lost out, please let me know and we can work something out.
@Fion that does rather change things, as requiring red-list location travellers to isolate for ten days at hotel (and later at destination, without monitoring) has been a policy, and may get implemented again over Chinese travellers. In the event of a new variety of concern emerging in China, I can see it being put in place very quickly. I would certainly want to pull back from my NO position.
Your previous examples were restrictions placed upon people ordinarily resident. A travel ban or quarantine is a bit different I think. You could argue that existing requirements for a chest xray to show no TB during visa applications is a government restriction in the UK this winter to reduce spread...of respiratory illnesses.
@CromlynGames fine. I'll go back to plan A. Travel restrictions are irrelevant to this market. There's nobody betting YES so I can't imagine there will be any complaints about that.