Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will the Ponzi scheme get more than 1000 participants?
26
Ṁ530Ṁ3.7k
resolved Sep 4
Resolved
NO

"Participant" is defined according to the "unique investors" cell in @CodeandSolder's handy spreadsheet. Currently cell Q1.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ezIasHt72Amgn0V1qZ9vjSL-wyrJw6UZ0DTl1RRd7FE/edit#gid=0

(Note that this is slightly different to the previous resolution criteria. See history for the old one, and see comments for the lack of objections to the change. Shouldn't make much (if any) difference to the outcome, but much easier to check.)

Close date extends indefinitely until the Ponzi scheme seems to be over. This could be:

  • It gets shut down by admins

  • @CodeandSolder decides to end it

  • A 36 hour period passes with no new signups. I'm not sure how easy it is to tell when somebody adds a subsidy so I might define this as above. But the point of this criterion is that it should only kick in if activity dries up, so if I'm doubt I'll keep it open.

Resolves YES if 1000 is reached.

https://manifold.markets/CodeandSolder/manifolds-first-completely-legal-po?r=Rmlvbg

Manifold's first completely legal Ponzi Scheme! [Ṁ1,811 PAID OUT!] [GET RICH QUICK]
As far as I'm aware there are no rules agains this and come on, first time's free! Here's how this goes: To participate you add 100M to the Bounty and place a comment: [image]With each joining person 75% of the bounty they added will be redistributed evenly to all previous participants (not guaranteed to be instant but I'll try to be fast). The other 25% will be used to cover operational costs of this completely legitimate enterprise. Your potential profits are infinite, the sooner you join the more you make! Official profit tracker now available! See also: @/CodeandSolder/will-manifolds-first-completely-leg Thanks to @Stralor for the idea: [image]‌
Market context
Manifold
Fun
Meta-markets
Meta-Forecasting
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ38
2Ṁ38
3Ṁ36
4Ṁ19
5Ṁ18

People are also trading

Sort by:
predictedYES

See my comment in my other market for details, but basically, it seems a 36 hour period passed with no new signups so I'm resolving this to NO now.

https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-the-ponzi-scheme-get-more-than-a5f90f71017c

Will the Ponzi scheme get more than 316 participants?
Resolved NO. "Participant" is defined according to the "unique investors" cell in @CodeandSolder's handy spreadsheet. Currently cell Q1. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ezIasHt72Amgn0V1qZ9vjSL-wyrJw6UZ0DTl1RRd7FE/edit#gid=0 (Note that this is slightly different to the previous resolution criteria. See history for the old one, and see comments for the lack of objections to the change. Shouldn't make much (if any) difference to the outcome, but much easier to check.) Close date extends indefinitely until the Ponzi scheme seems to be over. This could be: It gets shut down by admins @CodeandSolder decides to end it A 36 hour period passes with no new signups. I'm not sure how easy it is to tell when somebody adds a subsidy so I might define this as above. But the point of this criterion is that it should only kick in if activity dries up, so if I'm doubt I'll keep it open. Resolves YES if 316 is reached. https://manifold.markets/CodeandSolder/manifolds-first-completely-legal-po?r=Rmlvbg [link preview]
predictedYES

Would any current participants in this market object if I change the resolution criteria to explicitly relate to @CodeandSolder's spreadsheet? Realistically that seems like the best way to check but it might result in an off-by-one discrepancy compared to the "anyone who receives a payout" criteria I initially planned before I was aware of the spreadsheet.

I'll wait at least 16 hours to give a chance for objections.

predictedYES

@Fion No objections received. Changes now implemented.

I very much hope it will! xD

People are also trading