Will the "core" Jewish population of the USA be greater than that of Israel by 2030

1kṀ242

2030

15%

chance

ALL

Judged according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_population_by_country

I'll go with the numbers in the table, assuming an equivalent still exists in 2030. I will ignore any section on "Debate over United States numbers" and just look at the bottom line (i.e. the table, assuming it exists).

Market context

Jewish People

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will the "core" Jewish population of the UK be greater than that of Canada by 2030?

32% chance

Will the Jewish population of the world be greater in 2030 than in 2020?

90% chance

🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What will be the Jewish proportion of the population in Israel and Palestine in 2035?

Will more than 6 million Jews leave the US by 2045?

15% chance

What portion of US Jews will identify as Democrats in 2031?

60% chance

Will the US have a Jewish president by 2033?

12% chance

Will Israel's GDP/capita pass the USA's by 2070?

37% chance

Will More Than 1 Million Jews Immigrate to Israel in the years 2024-2027?

11% chance

Will US public opinion shift towards Israel during 2025 (according to gallop)?

17% chance

Will the United States have a Jewish president by end of 2040?

Sort by:

predictedNO

I thought Israel was growing faster because they have a higher % of ultra orthodox

@JonathanRay that is halfway correct. Not only do their ultra-orthodox members have more kids than their American counterparts, Israeli Secular jews have the highest birthrate of any secular group in the western world (or westernized country).