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MANIFOLD
Will "Barbie > 90%" market resolve NA?
16
Ṁ330Ṁ1.2k
resolved Jul 30
Resolved
NO

This is the market:

If the linked market resolves YES, NO, or PROB, then this market resolves NO. If the linked market resolves N/A, this market resolves YES. If the linked market stays open, this market stays open.

I'll resolve based on the final resolution of the linked market. So if the linked market gets resolved one way, I'll resolve this market the corresponding way. If the linked market gets re-resolved, then I'll ask for this market to be re-resolved (assuming I can't do it myself... I realise I don't actually know whether that's the case).

I may bet in this market.

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Why would it?

predictedYES

@NicoDelon basically it met the yes criteria, creater moved the goal post then it bounced from yes and no

Edit: based on my limited understanding of the situation

predictedNO

@Haws Just catching up on the comments. Yeah, it seems the creator’s criteria were a bit of a moving target.

predictedYES
predictedNO

@NicoDelon to be honest I created this market as a sort of hedge for myself for backing na pewno in Leagues markets. Unfortunately this market never got as low as I expected so now I'm betting in the same direction in both. Not sure if that's because the NA risk is higher than I think or because others are also using this market as a hedge.

@Haws It never met meet yes criteria.

Basically equivalent to this:

@JosephNoonan Actually, it looks like na_pewno could still win even if the Barbie market resolves N/A, but I'm not sure if there would be knock-on effects that would lower their score further.

Happy Joel Mchale GIF by ABC Network

Seems very unlikely.