How valuable are listed profits compared to unlisted profits?
10
113
190
resolved May 29
Resolved
YES

After close, I'll roll a two-sided FairlyRandom die. If the result is 1, I'll unlist the market and resolve NO. If the result is 2, I'll leave the market listed and resolve YES.

As a result, if people only value profits from listed markets (e.g. for league rankings), they should bet the price up to ~100%, since if the market remains listed they'll always have positive profits. On the other hand, if people value all kinds of profit equally regardless of whether it's listed or unlisted, they should bet the price down to ~50% just like any other "resolves yes with probability 50%" market. The equilibrium between those points that the market ultimately reaches should tell us the overall value of listed vs unlisted profit.

I think this will be an interesting experiment to run once, but I think if people start spamming similar markets it could become problematic. I plan to only create one market like this and I recommend other people do not create more similar markets (at least, unless they have a major innovation on the system). If something changes that prevents me from listing/unlisting the market as described here (e.g. a request from admins) I will resolve this market N/A.

Inspired by: https://manifold.markets/quinesweeper/will-there-be-another-wellrecognize

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ24
2Ṁ9
3Ṁ8
4Ṁ2
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predicted YES

Remains listed and resolves YES!

🤖

@A your random number is: 2

Salt: TvLAWRnynhqxeQegYZkq, round: 2997213 (signature a215b059ccff733859f775f2eded9c8eaa202cad0d8accf9f3aeec17ab41b0f1f5d70483f1a2e95654f09e7f750e803005b0ddb2ab89a83876b9e9e6b5acab2e5c28dde19dcd9da92204377ce458161269e1821f994e424c3365a1a2ca92f2aa)

🤖

@A you asked for a random integer between 1 and 2, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2997211 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2997213, salt: TvLAWRnynhqxeQegYZkq.

predicted YES
bought Ṁ10 of NO

50% chance

perfectly balanced, as things should be