After close, I'll roll a two-sided FairlyRandom die. If the result is 1, I'll unlist the market and resolve NO. If the result is 2, I'll leave the market listed and resolve YES.
As a result, if people only value profits from listed markets (e.g. for league rankings), they should bet the price up to ~100%, since if the market remains listed they'll always have positive profits. On the other hand, if people value all kinds of profit equally regardless of whether it's listed or unlisted, they should bet the price down to ~50% just like any other "resolves yes with probability 50%" market. The equilibrium between those points that the market ultimately reaches should tell us the overall value of listed vs unlisted profit.
I think this will be an interesting experiment to run once, but I think if people start spamming similar markets it could become problematic. I plan to only create one market like this and I recommend other people do not create more similar markets (at least, unless they have a major innovation on the system). If something changes that prevents me from listing/unlisting the market as described here (e.g. a request from admins) I will resolve this market N/A.
Inspired by: https://manifold.markets/quinesweeper/will-there-be-another-wellrecognize
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