Thanks to @Tetraspace for sponsoring this market.
This refers to the next general election to take place electing representatives to the UK parliament.
Please submit answers in the form of a political party, not an individual. If you wish to submit an individual who will run as an independent, please submit your answer in the form: "Independent: [person's name]". If anybody submits "Independent" as an answer, it will not resolve YES, even if an independent wins.
"Labour" and "Labour and Co-operative" will be treated interchangeably.
I may bet in this market.
I'm planning to make 650 of these, one for each of the parliamentary constituencies. If you wish to support this (rather expensive) endeavour, you can either make some trades so I get trader bonuses, or you can start making your own. Please tag me in the comments if you do so I know not to duplicate your markets. For an up to date list of which constituencies I've created markets for, see the description here: https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-we-create-a-market-for-every-s?r=Rmlvbg
Alternatively, if you want to support this endeavour, you can simply managram me money. Thanks again to @Tetraspace.
Related questions
@Noit Just became aware that North Northumberland is on Labour’s Non Battlegrounds list, suggesting they will be minimising their efforts here. Doesn’t mean they won’t win, but makes it much less likely IMO.
@Noit 2019 results were conservatives 24k, labour 9k and lib dem 7.5k - are you generally expecting conservative losses to be in that magnitude? Or is there something in particular about Berwick on Tweed? I've been vaguely assuming that any constituency where conservatives have a 30+% lead they're pretty safe, but I've not got much to back that up...
@CanlumNodel B-u-T has consistently leaned 10-15% away from Labour compared to the country as a whole, if that holds Labour continue to poll around 45% then they should see results around the 30% mark.
The place has slowly been leaning more CON and on a good night with current polling I’d expect them to get 35-40%.
LDEM is interesting as back in 2010 it leaned 20% more LDEM than the UK at large, if they could pull back to that level then they’d also potentially be hitting 30% on a good night. But they have lost ground over the last decade so that’d be an uphill struggle.
So I’d say a CON win is the most likely but it will be close and it’s going to depend on how much of a force Reform are on the night.
@Noit Good run down, thanks. I've done very few election predictions up until now; the idea of using a constituency's typical deviation from national polls is a new one to me.
Which is possibly an indicator I should be careful about putting a bunch of mana into all of these markets based on wikipedia and gut feel, but hey ho. :)