
Labour have made a promise to block all new oil and gas projects in the North Sea (source: https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/labour-confirms-plans-to-block-all-new-north-sea-oil-and-gas-projects/).
Significant parts of the press, other parties, and some Labour politicians have strongly opposed this plan and there is speculation that Starmer might change his mind.
This market resolves YES if, at the time the next election happens, this promise is "live" in the sense that it has been made and not scrapped. For example, if they put it in their manifesto and don't explicitly drop it before the election, market resolves YES.
If they attempt a sort of shadow U-turn, and simply not mention the policy again between now and the election (and not publish it in their manifesto) this market resolves NO.
If they drop the promise, then pick it up again, resovles YES. In other words, this market won't resolve early as soon as they drop it; I'll wait for the election. I'm expecting that the manifesto will be the main source of evidence in resolving this - the burden of proof will be on anybody saying that what's in the manifesto doesn't represent Labour's promises at the time of the eleciton.
Any questions, please ask.
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