Will "another AI letter by 31st May" have more than 250 unique traders?

Ṁ170Ṁ39k

resolved Jun 1

Resolved

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Market is about the unique trader number, that's 118 in the screenshot, hitting 250 or more.

If the market is prematurely closed or deleted before we hit the number or if trade is limited for any other reason such as technical issues and the number is not reached, this market resolves to NO. That's part of what you're betting on here!

This market is resolved on objective facts, and I may trade in it.

Market context

Meta-Forecasting

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1,000

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🏅 Top traders

#	Trader	Total profit
1		Ṁ37
2		Ṁ36
3		Ṁ19
4		Ṁ14
5		Ṁ13

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Will this market get at least 50 unique traders before April?

38% chance

Will this market get 50 unique traders by the end of March?

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@Fedor this should resolve NO:

@MayMeta Apologies, this does resolve No.

Note, about this market if it's not blindingly obvious:

https://manifold.markets/quinesweeper/will-there-be-another-wellrecognize

Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?

48% chance. Resolves YES if there is a similar letter as the Pause Letter released by the Future of Life Institute by end of May 2023. Resolves NO otherwise. We’ll call it well-recognized if it gets signed by at least 10 big public figureheads in AI, and at least one Turing award winner. It may ad…

@Fedor Correct link: https://manifold.markets/quinesweeper/will-there-be-another-wellrecognize

predictedNO

@NamesAreHard Thanks, if I want to disambiguate the issue, I shouldn't make a mistake!

People are also trading

Will this market get at least 50 unique traders before April?

38% chance

Will this market get 50 unique traders by the end of March?

45% chance

🏅 Top traders

People are also trading

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