Will "another AI letter by 31st May" have more than 250 unique traders?
Fedor avatar
Fedor
10
resolved Jun 1
Resolved
NO

Market is about the unique trader number, that's 118 in the screenshot, hitting 250 or more.

If the market is prematurely closed or deleted before we hit the number or if trade is limited for any other reason such as technical issues and the number is not reached, this market resolves to NO. That's part of what you're betting on here!

This market is resolved on objective facts, and I may trade in it.

Meta-Forecasting

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1
MayMeta avatarMayMeta
Ṁ37
2
Gen avatarGenzy
Ṁ36
3
NamesAreHard avatarNamesAreHard
Ṁ19
4
Fedor avatarFedor
Ṁ14
5
SimonGrayson avatarSimon Grayson
Ṁ13
Sort by:
MayMeta avatar
MayMetabought Ṁ1,000 of NO

@Fedor this should resolve NO:

Fedor avatar
Fedorbought Ṁ8,700 of NO

@MayMeta Apologies, this does resolve No.

Fedor avatar
Fedorbought Ṁ10 of NO(edited)

Note, about this market if it's not blindingly obvious:

https://manifold.markets/quinesweeper/will-there-be-another-wellrecognize

Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?
Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?
48% chance. Resolves YES if there is a similar letter as the Pause Letter released by the Future of Life Institute by end of May 2023. Resolves NO otherwise. We’ll call it well-recognized if it gets signed by at least 10 big public figureheads in AI, and at least one Turing award winner. It may ad…
NamesAreHard avatar
NamesAreHard

@Fedor Correct link: https://manifold.markets/quinesweeper/will-there-be-another-wellrecognize

Fedor avatar
Fedorpredicted NO at 48%

@NamesAreHard Thanks, if I want to disambiguate the issue, I shouldn't make a mistake!

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