How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot?

Question

Mirrors this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjeffriesdefect/democrats-not-voting-for-jeffries-on-the-first-speaker-ballot/kxjeffriesdefect-27feb01

Resolves according to Kalshi's final result, using Kalshi's rules for this market.

Kalshi's rules: If the number of Democratic Representatives who vote for a candidate other than Hakeem Jeffries, or vote Present, on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 8 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, At least 1, followed by At least 3 and At least 5 are most likely. See the market for live updates (1 traders, as of Nov 9, 2026).

People are also trading

Related questions