California's 29th District margin of victory

Question

Mirrors this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/midterm-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-ca29lriv

Resolves according to Kalshi's final result, using Kalshi's rules for this market.

Kalshi's rules: If Luz Rivas wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 29th District by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Luz Rivas, 1+ pts, followed by Luz Rivas, 5+ pts and Luz Rivas, 10+ pts are most likely. See the market for live updates (4 traders, as of Oct 30, 2026).

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