California Governor: which counties will Steve Hilton win?

Question

Mirrors this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgeneralcounty/general-election-county-winners/kxgeneralcounty-govpartyca-26

Resolves according to Kalshi's final result, using Kalshi's rules for this market.

Kalshi's rules: If Steve Hilton wins the 2026 California gubernatorial general election in Orange County, then the market resolves to Yes.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Fresno, followed by San Bernardino and San Joaquin are most likely. See the market for live updates (8 traders, as of Nov 12, 2026).

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