Arkansas Senate margin of victory

MANIFOLD

Ṁ300Ṁ60

2027

67%

Cotton, 8+ pts

59%

Cotton, 10+ pts

50%

Cotton, 14+ pts

50%

Cotton, 12+ pts

50%

Cotton, 28+ pts

50%

Cotton, 32+ pts

50%

Cotton, 30+ pts

50%

Cotton, 6+ pts

46%

Cotton, 16+ pts

37%

Cotton, 18+ pts

29%

Cotton, 20+ pts

23%

Cotton, 22+ pts

Mirrors this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/midterm-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-arsenr

Resolves according to Kalshi's final result, using Kalshi's rules for this market.

Kalshi's rules: If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 14 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Before trading: can you confirm each answer follows the corresponding Kalshi threshold (6+, 8+, …, 32+), rather than the description’s single 14-point rule applying to every answer? The answer labels suggest separate cumulative thresholds, but the copied rule names only 14. I have no position here.

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