
In 2024, will the IAEA publicly report that Iran has enriched uranium to weapons-grade levels?
65
1.6kṀ13kresolved Jan 9
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Resolution by the International Atomic Energy Agency. As of October 28, 2023, the IAEA reported that Iran has an estimated 128.3 kg of uranium enriched up to 60% purity. This is just a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-barring-inspectors-is-serious-blow-iaeas-work-grossi-says-2023-11-22/
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit | 
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,066 | |
| 2 | Ṁ169 | |
| 3 | Ṁ157 | |
| 4 | Ṁ102 | |
| 5 | Ṁ94 | 
People are also trading
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?
2% chance
Will Iran test a nuclear bomb before January 2026?
3% chance
Will Iran assemble a nuclear bomb before January 2026?
3% chance
Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025?
3% chance
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2025?
3% chance
Will Iran obtain a nuke in 2025?
3% chance
Will Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before the end of 2026?
10% chance
Will Israel conduct an attack that significantly degrades Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility before January 2026?
6% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?
50% chance
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
33% chance
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?
2% chance
Will Iran test a nuclear bomb before January 2026?
3% chance
Will Iran assemble a nuclear bomb before January 2026?
3% chance
Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025?
3% chance
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2025?
3% chance
Will Iran obtain a nuke in 2025?
3% chance
Will Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before the end of 2026?
10% chance
Will Israel conduct an attack that significantly degrades Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility before January 2026?
6% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?
50% chance
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
33% chance