![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FNermitBundaloy%2F1f0638c12315.jpg%3FGoogleAccessId%3Dmantic-markets%2540appspot.gserviceaccount.com%26Expires%3D16447017600%26Signature%3DiebnfajGvBfraOfrUGF%252BNLoCoqtx74Cr0hAOn4ehtxH4BX8lwIfyIreS024JGJwqJyHLnJDd%252Fqu7dx7jm8o7FnqcC1K4jcoAWnsq9X70rAmtgDi5mRU7DJmBdhIrIESVFgkIKAh8DMUu0%252BhkpzMrHMsiMFGho9RquZ8JsMHJZ8vR2UInAoTHExIDy6pOadnmUuZkZoQRfjnaKbSvBZHRfA2ttXuwKOmxGGdrfpbchYBCnyZWr4dSGTuVLWCG4DxLn%252BOhVDOAAIyQAeJ0b%252BPhDQXDUqxpWJggtGzkWvhtFaZO%252FPaeMcuoFsLDDAJOApnnZXOLRRZiHOU8XR%252FvhYLYXQ%253D%253D&w=3840&q=75)
In 2024, will the IAEA publicly report that Iran has enriched uranium to weapons-grade levels?
Basic
58
Ṁ7.0kJan 1
18%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Resolution by the International Atomic Energy Agency. As of October 28, 2023, the IAEA reported that Iran has an estimated 128.3 kg of uranium enriched up to 60% purity. This is just a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-barring-inspectors-is-serious-blow-iaeas-work-grossi-says-2023-11-22/
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Will Iran reach the 'weapons-grade' uranium enrichment threshold before 2025?
45% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?
36% chance
Will Iran declare that they are a nuclear power by the end of 2024?
25% chance
Will Israel hit Iran's nuclear sites in 2024?
21% chance
Will Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before 2026?
27% chance
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will Iran reach the 'weapons-grade' uranium enrichment threshold before 2025?
45% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?
55% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?
36% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?
45% chance
Will Iran declare that they are a nuclear power by the end of 2024?
25% chance
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
56% chance
Will Israel hit Iran's nuclear sites in 2024?
21% chance
Will an Iranian nuclear facility be bombed by 2025?
43% chance
Will Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before 2026?
27% chance
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2025?
30% chance