Ruleset: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. pre-orders for Apple's Vision Pro on Apple.com are marked as sold out within the first 24 hours, beginning at 5 p.m. Pacific Time on January 19, 2024. "Sold out" is defined as the inability for customers in the U.S. to place new pre-orders for the Vision Pro on Apple.com due to all available units being claimed. Should Apple.com show that all available units for the U.S. have been claimed within the specified time frame, the market will resolve immediately to "Yes". If Apple.com shows that customers in the U.S. are still able to place pre-orders after the first 24 hours, the market will resolve to "No".
Expiry Date: January 21, 2024
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This resolution makes no sense. Within a few hours you couldn't place a "pre-order" for delivery or pickup in the month it was being released.
https://manifold.markets/PontusAndersson/apple-vision-pro-will-sell-out-with
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-first-taste-consumer-demand-050100149.html
@ParadoxRain Read the description. It says you have to be unable to place an order for it to be defined as “Sold out”.
I 100% agree with your definition of sold out, but for the purpose of this market, we can still go to Apple.com and place an order even though the wait time is a month.
@ChuckLauerVose from the description:
"Sold out" is defined as the inability for customers in the U.S. to place new pre-orders
US customers are perfectly able to place new orders. I agree the description is flawed here (see my comment below), but that’s what it says and what I based my bet on.
@ChuckLauerVose they are trying for “in-store pickup” which of course will fail. But they could order by delivery (granted with a far out shipping date), and the order would fill. Forbes articles are always a joke.
@maniman Apple doesn't ever stop taking orders due to supply (they stop taking orders on discontinued product and the very uncommon case of a court order like with the recent Watch patent dispute). As @esusatyo said, when supply constrained they will let you place an order but push back the delivery, sometimes by more than a month.
The definition of "sold out" here isn't applicable, and if taken literally would resolve this NO even if Vision is sold out for several weeks.