Will the Giant Panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) become extinct in the current century? | Manifold

Will the Giant Panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) become extinct in the current century?

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15

Ṁ785

2099

27%

chance

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This market will resolve YES if the Giant Panda, also known as Panda Bear, is extinct in 2100. It will resolve NO if it is not extinct in 2100.

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_panda

IUCN red list of threatened species

https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/712/121745669

Please help trading this market and posting news about the species in the comments, in order to get the most accurate assessment of its extinction risk.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Extinction Risk

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opened a Ṁ250 NO at 30% order

Feels like this should be about 5%. Vulnerable species typically are 10% in the next 100 years, but the giant panda has more individuals and much more cultural significance than a normal vulnerable species.

Can you please define your use of the term, “extinct.”

@suzumebatchi According to Wikipedia, Extinction is the termination of a species by the death of its last member. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction

@ExtinctionRisk

Is that the definition you are using for this market?

@suzumebatchi yes

@ExtinctionRisk

Do cryogenically preserved fertilized embryos count as individuals? …asking for a friend in Alabama. 😏

@suzumebatchi Difficult question. I don't know.

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