Due to the ongoing government shutdown, the FAA is warning travelers that an increasing number of flights will be cancelled starting tomorrow (Friday 11/7), increasing to 10% by next week:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/05/us/politics/faa-flights-air-traffic-government-shutdown.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/flight-reduction-shutdown-faa-rcna242231

Typical cancellation rates in November are below 1%, so this market asks whether the total number will be at least 10%. I plan to use the Bureau of Transportation Statistics website as my source of truth but am happy to use another one if traders convince me there's a more accurate source (contingent on it being easy enough to get the correct data).

Fine print:

• Worried about time zones and edge cases? Please don't be, as I won't be careful about it. I'll trust whatever day-bucketing methodology is used by the data source I choose.

• For purposes of this market, a week starts on Monday and ends on Sunday. My read of the current announcement is that changes will start on Sunday, so there shouldn't be any boundary effects by Monday.

• I think a numerical bins market would be fun too, but IME those get fewer participants. Let me know if you want me to create such a market.

• Update 2025-11-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "US commercial flights" refers to domestic flights only (flights within the United States), not international flights to/from the US.

The creator will use FlightAware as a backup data source if Bureau of Transportation Statistics data is not available, and will attempt to apply appropriate filters for domestic US flights.