Edit: If it closes end of march at over 5246.813, then YES otherwise no
Calculation: 4769.83 * 1.1 = 5246.813
The title says OVER 10% so it has to beat that
Edit: added March 11. This refers to whether the percentage change from the start to the end of the time period is over the limit. So it cannot resolve early.
Edit March 27: To make sure we contain all global change, this will be measured from the last instant of the prior quarter (close price end of 2023) to the last instant of Q1 2024, (closing price)
this is because the starting price on a day isn't always the same as the closing price the prior day. If we only did within-interval times, then adding up the quarterly gains for the 4 quarters of a year, say, would be seriously off from the number you'd get if you calculated the full year change directly. To avoid that, we use an open interval at the start and end on a closed one, i.e.
[prior interval start=A, prior interval end=B],[this interval start=C, this interval end=D] we are measuring B =>D.
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Can we clarify what exactly the price is that it needs to be above? The comment down below says 5245 (and 4769 at the start of the year), and I have been betting assuming it was that, but the opening price on Jan 2 (the first trading day of the year) was 4745, which would make 10% above be 5219. There's a decent chance it lands in this range, so I'd just like to clarify which number is correct.
@dominic People usually go by the closing price of the previous quarter, not opening price of this quarter
@AmmonLam yes, this market doesn't say "in one day" so it refers to the entire period from the first opening instant within Q1 to the last. I haven't checked your specific numbers but that is the formula I would use
@Lion those references are good, and I can use them. But is the price of the S&P in doubt?
Q1 starts Jan 1 and ends at the end of the last day of March. Q2 starts April 1.
Similar to other cases, for example, if there are differences in the exact prices reported by major outlets at end of trading, we'll wait a bit until they converge. I haven't committed to any sources because I'm unaware of there ever being a disagreement about what the price is once the day has passed, given a day or two to handle unusual situations.
If you anticipate something, can we speak about it? Ie I'm not willing to say for example that yahoo is authoritative in preference to Google finance because to me they're identical so far. Is there some meaningful distinction underneath that?
@Ernie Your answer is self-contradictory, so to be clear, the question is whether the S&P 500 will close on March 28th more than 10% above the opening price on January 2nd, that is $5,219.72. You are not measuring from the closing price on December 29th. Is that right?
@AndrewHebb ah okay looking it up i see what you mean.
I think for global consistency measuring from last price in 2023 to last price in q124 makes more sense since this pattern, repeatedly applied, will not miss any price change globally
@Ernie The past price is known. Just do whatever lookup you’re going to do to resolve now and state what exactly the market level needs to be to resolve yes. You’ve been asked for this twice already and just end up with long descriptions instead.
What level does the S&P have to close the quarter at to resolve yes?
@AndrewHebb if I resolved early it would be possible that markets like this would simultaneously say the market increases by 10% and also decreased by 10% in the same period.and even worse, if we count instantaneous changes not daily. The way I do it now is to only count end to end so that the sections are composeable when you combine multiple time periods
@Ernie Sorry, but I don't understand what you're trying to say. The question can be resolved. There is no trading day left. Why don't you do it?
@Ernie I'm not following this. How would it be possible for markets to say that it increased by 10%? The market is closed for the quarter. It doesn't reopen until April.
@Ernie Market is closed today for Good Friday, so no trading days left. You’re right that it shouldn’t close early, but closing now wouldn’t be “early” really.
