Will someone start a site that is obviously a copy of early OkCupid before end of 2024 [DRAFTING MAY CHANGE]?
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This article gives a few examples of problems with software evolution over time, where great systems and features are lost and dumbed down.

The Tyranny of the Marginal User

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37509507

One example it uses is OkCupid, which along with everyone else, I remember as being really wonderful for meeting and stringly filtering interesting and unusual people for dating, before it was bought and gradually killed by Match.com.

Many people are talking about restarting a site like this, as a labor of love.

Will this happen in 2024, such that the site meets these criteria:

  • has at least 100k users

  • is mentioned by scott alexander of Astral Codex Ten

  • is clearly modeled on early, nice, good okcupid

  • [What other criteria can I use to fix this? I don't want a failing/small/not genuine site to trigger YES but I don't want to miss a real, serious and growing attempt by being too strict. Perhaps something about involving the original engineers? But that seems to limiting.]

Deadline: by end of 2024. I want a short deadline so there will be more action and bettors. If this market is created and kicks off, I will link it around to various people who've seemed interested in the idea over the years, and maybe from that, we can get something really started! I think reforming okc would be one of the most noble things a talented person could do. Even though it's a very simple thing without very much technical challenge, just getting this done could lead to thousands of marriages and children, much less loneliness, and preserving the meaning of the suffering and fighting for survival and learning all of our ancestors have been through. let's do this, and solve the problem!

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Your 3 criteria you have seems strict enough to me. You could change "Is mentioned by Scott Alexander" to "Is mentioned / implied by Scott Alexander to be a copy of old OKCupid"... Because if it is, he has a high chance of making that connection, right? That would reduce it being triggered by a "not genuine" condition. But I feel like these are unicorn conditions already.