Will Ilya Sutskever continue at OpenAI til end 2023?
Jan 1

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Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚predicts YES

Recent reporting looks bad for him staying too long. I made a market for where he goes if he leaves:

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚predicts YES

Marcus on him leaving:

trixwit avatar
trixwitbought Ṁ50 of YES

End of 2023? Yes

End of 2024? No

trixwit avatar
trixwitbought Ṁ20 of NO

@MargaretWallace I'm kinda of certain that he would leave, that’s typically what happens during failed coups. But maybe not this soon (end of 2023), I would bet on 2024 instead

trixwit avatar
trixwitpredicts NO

@MargaretWallace Also don't think that Sam Altman wants to come off as the bad guy who retaliates, so it would make sense if he waited for things to cool down first

NielsW avatar
Niels Wbought Ṁ30 of NO
VAPOR avatar

@roma aww ❤️

Simon74fe avatar
Simonpredicts YES

Someone is missing 🤔😿

Simon74fe avatar
Simonbought Ṁ300 of YES

Shump avatar
Shumppredicts NO

I think y'all are seriously underestimating the chance that Ilya gets fired as soon as they find someone to fill his position. He was part of a "coup" against Sam, and Sam doesn't appear to be very forgiving.

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚predicts YES

@Shump Great reason to bet down the market that ends in 2024, but not this one IMO.

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polackpredicts NO

I feel like if im sam - kicking ilya out at this point, especially quickly, would give off the wrong feeling to the rest of the openai team

Shump avatar
Shumpbought Ṁ25 of NO

@jacksonpolack Maybe he'll do it Putin style, just wait for the right moment to get rid of him

SemioticRivalry avatar
Semiotic Rivalrypredicts YES

also from all reports ilya is an utter savant at his job and losing him to a competitor would be very bad

bec avatar
Rebeccapredicts NO

@SemioticRivalry How does that square with reports that his role in the company was being reduced?

SemioticRivalry avatar
Semiotic Rivalrypredicts YES

@bec i wonder the specifics of that. for example the story we just got today about Q-Star says that Ilya was about to end their reliance on outside datasets

Simon74fe avatar
Simonbought Ṁ1,000 of YES

Does this sound like somebody who is about to quit his job?

firstuserhere avatar

@Simon74fe absolutely not!

shankypanky avatar
stefaniepredicts NO

@Simon74fe my no shares are worthless to sell so I'll just let it ride but I'd say there's nfw he's going - definitely not voluntarily

EvanDaniel avatar

Does "continue" mean this resolves No as soon as he leaves, even if he is re-hired? His employment must be continuous?

Ernie avatar

@EvanDaniel it can NO immediately if he departs

Simon74fe avatar
Simonpredicts YES
EliTyre avatar
Eli Tyrebought Ṁ100 of YES

Under what story does he not stay?

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚

@EliTyre Did you see the letter he signed?

EliTyre avatar
Eli Tyrebought Ṁ0 of NO


TomPotter avatar
Tom Potterpredicts YES

@Joshua I feel like Ilya is a bit of a special case re: the message of the letter, since he was I think more giving recognition and affirmation of validity to his people, and definitely not him trying to express that he himself is actively jostling for the solution of "let's all just dissolve this thing" -- especially given his tweet https://twitter.com/ilyasut/status/1726590052392956028 "I love everything we've built together and I will do everything I can to reunite the company." I don't see him leaving out of his own volition, but the opposite of trying to keep everyone from leaving :/

That said, there's a decent chance all of OpenAI gets bought by Microsoft and absorbed to the point where the name disappears, in which case this market may technically resolve NO. I don't think that's likely though.