Will Ilya Sutskever continue at OpenAI til end 2023?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES

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predicted YES

Recent reporting looks bad for him staying too long. I made a market for where he goes if he leaves:

predicted YES

Marcus on him leaving:

bought Ṁ50 of YES

End of 2023? Yes

End of 2024? No

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@MargaretWallace I'm kinda of certain that he would leave, that’s typically what happens during failed coups. But maybe not this soon (end of 2023), I would bet on 2024 instead

predicted NO

@MargaretWallace Also don't think that Sam Altman wants to come off as the bad guy who retaliates, so it would make sense if he waited for things to cool down first

bought Ṁ30 of NO

@roma aww ❤️

predicted YES

Someone is missing 🤔😿

bought Ṁ300 of YES

predicted NO

I think y'all are seriously underestimating the chance that Ilya gets fired as soon as they find someone to fill his position. He was part of a "coup" against Sam, and Sam doesn't appear to be very forgiving.

predicted YES

@Shump Great reason to bet down the market that ends in 2024, but not this one IMO.

predicted NO

I feel like if im sam - kicking ilya out at this point, especially quickly, would give off the wrong feeling to the rest of the openai team

bought Ṁ25 of NO

@jacksonpolack Maybe he'll do it Putin style, just wait for the right moment to get rid of him

predicted YES

also from all reports ilya is an utter savant at his job and losing him to a competitor would be very bad

predicted NO

@SemioticRivalry How does that square with reports that his role in the company was being reduced?

predicted YES

@bec i wonder the specifics of that. for example the story we just got today about Q-Star says that Ilya was about to end their reliance on outside datasets

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

Does this sound like somebody who is about to quit his job?

@Simon74fe absolutely not!

predicted NO

@Simon74fe my no shares are worthless to sell so I'll just let it ride but I'd say there's nfw he's going - definitely not voluntarily

Does "continue" mean this resolves No as soon as he leaves, even if he is re-hired? His employment must be continuous?

@EvanDaniel it can NO immediately if he departs

predicted YES
bought Ṁ100 of YES

Under what story does he not stay?

@EliTyre Did you see the letter he signed?

bought Ṁ0 of NO

Oh.

predicted YES

@Joshua I feel like Ilya is a bit of a special case re: the message of the letter, since he was I think more giving recognition and affirmation of validity to his people, and definitely not him trying to express that he himself is actively jostling for the solution of "let's all just dissolve this thing" -- especially given his tweet https://twitter.com/ilyasut/status/1726590052392956028 "I love everything we've built together and I will do everything I can to reunite the company." I don't see him leaving out of his own volition, but the opposite of trying to keep everyone from leaving :/

That said, there's a decent chance all of OpenAI gets bought by Microsoft and absorbed to the point where the name disappears, in which case this market may technically resolve NO. I don't think that's likely though.

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