Cerebras multimarket (all judged separately)
2
1.5kṀ487
2026
60%
IPO actually happens in 2025
60%
IPO actually happens in 2026
60%
IPO actually happens in 2027
50%
At end of first day trading, valuation >10b
50%
At end of first day trading, valuation >50b
50%
Has over 1000 employees at IPO time.
50%
Out of business by mid 2027
50%
Is purchased by another company by mid 2028
50%
Officially confirmed that their chips are used by OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepSeek, with a value of at least 100m USD, by mid 2028
50%
+2 years from IPO, valuation is >100b
50%
+3 years from IPO, the CEO is still in place (from IPO time)
50%
The CEO Andrew Feldman has a wikipedia page active on the IPO day
50%
Any of their CEOs visits the Qhite House, til mid 2027, media proof required*
50%
HQ moves farther than 50 miles from sunnyvale city hall
50%
Cerebras sells a consumer product, <10k usd, in US by mid 2027

Deadline will be extended to accommodate judgements

On adding questions: please make them clearly judgeable . I reserve the right to cancel if they're not interesting, clear, or judgeable. Keep the tone professional and polite otherwise I will remove or edit the answer.

Specific details on sub-claims:

  • On whether they have orders of >100m usd, exchanges of stock would count as revenue, translating the value at the time as well as we can back to USD. The point is whether they have sold a lot of things, and gotten a lot of money for it.

  • All IPO-related claims resolve negatively (i.e. they didn't pass the criteria) if there has been no IPO by mid 2027

  • media proof required = official company or white house announcement, la times, wash post, economist, reuters, bloomberg, wsj, AP. Nytimes and other media do NOT count.

  • Consumer product = actually purchaseable by a member of the public

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