Bridge built connecting Uruguay to Argentina near B.A. any time through 2040
Bridge built connecting Uruguay to Argentina near B.A. any time through 2040
3
90Ṁ502041
40%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
At least some work must have started and project must be funded and on track
Connecting each sides mainland, not islands, although stopovers or steps at islands are fine.
Anywhere within the green box - the top width is only about a mile wide.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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