Russia deploys tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine by end of 2024
9
22
Ṁ441Ṁ190
2025
8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Russia posesses stockpiles of thermonuclear armed artillery shells. The use of depleted uranium rounds or other non-fissile munitions does not count for the purposes of the question, only fissile weapons. Russia currently posesses such weapons but has not used them.
The use of a "demonstration strike" against an unimportant objective would still count as their deployment. So long as the weapons have been fired they will be considered deployed.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Putin ends war in Ukraine before 2026
22% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2030?
7% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2028?
7% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2026?
6% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will Russia launch a military attack against a NATO member by the end of 2024?
5% chance
Will Putin escalate to using nuclear weapons by the end of 2024?
10% chance
Russian attacks or invades Lithuania by mid 2026
15% chance
Will Russia detonate a nuclear bomb in Ukraine by 2024?
2% chance
Deployment of EU Ground Combat Troops to Ukraine by End of 2024
16% chance