Will Kamala Harris lose NC but win a different Trump 2020 state?
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1kṀ13kresolved Nov 7
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Resolves YES if Kamala Harris loses North Carolina, but wins a different state that Donald Trump won in 2020.
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I think there's kind of a lot of worlds where Harris wins Iowa but loses North Carolina. She's doing only like 4 points worse in Iowa than in North Carolina, and you could easily imagine Harris overperforming with white voters / in the Midwest in a way that could result in this outcome.
My guess is this particular combination (win Iowa, lose North Carolina) happens in about 3% of worlds. And then there's various other worlds, like Harris winning Alaska or Ohio.