I think there's kind of a lot of worlds where Harris wins Iowa but loses North Carolina. She's doing only like 4 points worse in Iowa than in North Carolina, and you could easily imagine Harris overperforming with white voters / in the Midwest in a way that could result in this outcome.

My guess is this particular combination (win Iowa, lose North Carolina) happens in about 3% of worlds. And then there's various other worlds, like Harris winning Alaska or Ohio.