Should Harris have picked Shapiro? [See description]
Plus
35
แน3754Dec 1
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if the following three things happen:
Kamala Harris loses the 2024 presidential election.
Kamala Harris loses Pennsylvania by between 0% and 1%.
Had she instead won Pennsylvania, she would have gotten 270 or more electoral votes.
Otherwise, the market resolves NO.
This is intended to be a proxy for "Harris would have counterfactually won the election if she had picked Josh Shapiro instead of Tim Walz".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Did ABC rig the debate for Harris?
1% chance
Would Harris win, if this person were her Vice Presidential nominee in 2024?
Will Josh Shapiro be the Presidential or Vice Presidential candidate for the Democrats in 2028?
19% chance
Harris's chances to be hurt from appearing on the Joe Rogan Experience?
31% chance
If nominated, would Josh Shapiro win the 2024 Presidential Election?
64% chance
If Josh Shapiro is the Democratic VP nominee, will Kamala Harris win Pennsylvania?
Harris to get a boost from appearing on the Joe Rogan Experience?
27% chance
Harris to pass Trump?
25% chance